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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (8727)	1/2/1998 4:00:00 PM
From: Milkman	Respond to of 21342

Trey, What makes you think that "the cannabilization of T1 revenues is inevitable"? The delay in RBOC xDSL deployment is because they are circling around setting up the knockout blow. The way these services are tarrifed sets the stage for the next 5+ years. The RBOCs by nature are slow, but they are also very calculating. The current competative situation and associated litigation allows them the time they need to deploy the way they want to. All RBOCs are not created equal. Given the recent Ruling, if you look at Bell Atlantic/Nynex they are either stupid for being so cooperative or they get it! Which do you think it is? Competition is the only thing that will speed up the RBOCs to deploy xDSL services. If you are so unhappy with WSTL you should sell and jump on one of the many values that will make your money back. Good luck to you. Regards, Milkman

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (8727)	1/2/1998 4:44:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21342

<i am totally confused...> I'll try to clarify. <..now that they have little to fear (the FCC can blow smoke all it wants), you are saying they wont deploy...> You misread my post. I simply stated (what to me is) the obvious - that IF this ruling is upheld on appeal (and there is reason to question this), the RBOC's benefit in being able to enter LD W/O having to make MORE available their loop loop is of benefit to them, seemingly obviating the current Supreme Court appeal on rebundling issues. Does this necessarily get DSL out quicker? IMO, not necessarily. Even if the RBOCs were guaranteed that they could invest in DSL equipment and customer base building and NEVER need to worry about needing to unbundle/rebundle, they probably STILL would drag this out as long as they could. Building the ADSL infrastructure is a BIG and NEW (dirty word for the Bells) investment. And, believe it or not, concerns of quality, reliability and the market are very much there. We will likely continue to disagree on this, and that's fine. It's a matter of opinion. Time will tell. But in fact, though they are closer with this recent ruling, they still don't have this guaranteed certainty. So will they roll out? IMO, eventually. Even optimistic estimates (see Steve Green's recent article post) are looking for about 1MM lines by 2000. Could it be slower than this? I think it MIGHT be. So, considering WSTL, what percentage of an optimistic market projection do you think ALA gets? What percent will Rockwell, 3Com, ASND, PAIR and all other potential ADSL players get? And what percent of this 1MM will WSTL get? <..all this crap about the bells not deploying because they will loose T1 revenue is nonsense...> And I am sure that if you were running an RBOC, and you knew nothing more about the intricacies of their business models than you do now, that you would be rolling out ADSL as we type. So, we'll see. Good luck Steve