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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bruwin who wrote (58210)

10/16/2016 12:34:12 AM

From: Elroy

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78741

SIMO has shown itself to be a good growth stock, although Revenue has flattened out a bit in the last 3 months.

No, they haven't. Revenues for the last 3 quarters are about $112m, $141m and $158m. What flattening out are you talking about?

Going forward, I guess a lot may depend on the advancements made by others in the special line that SIMO is in and how that affects SIMO's market share.

This is true of every semiconductor stock. There's no indication that I'm aware of that SIMO's competitors (Phison, Marvell, the NAND makers themselves) are improving. In fact all the indications over the past few years is that SIMO is gaining share on these competitors. So sure, the could theoretically change in any future year, but the trend is in the opposite direction (in SIMO's favor) during the past 4 to 5 years.

I used a P/E of 20 in order to predict a future share price

20x is way too high, SIMO usually trades between 10x and 17x. The reason for the PE discount to growth is probably your first concern - SIMO can lose a design win in any future technology transition, and revenues go plop and evaporate, so it's not "sticky" like some semiconductor makers. But as I said, the trend has been for them to gain share rather than lose share, so we'll see what happens.