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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (5109)	1/2/1998 6:28:00 PM
From: LesX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116752

There is speculation that the Dutch are selling.

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (5109)	1/2/1998 6:55:00 PM
From: PaulM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116752

Ron, you're right, there's nothing magical about the gold market today. I think alot of folks have been traumatized by what amounts to severe bear market and look elsewhere for the cause. For example, I've read suggestions about a divirgence between the "paper" gold market and the physical gold market. If so, I suggest we buy on the COMEX, demand delivery, and then sell at a premium to the public. (Is this illegal?) Point is: such an anamoly couldn't persist. The most we can say is that producers will produce less gold this year than the total amount that will be bought. Explanation: already existing supply will fill the gap. Obvious, but worth repeating that... for every buyer, a seller. The only thing that can cause the price of anything to tank is when sellers are willing to sell more units at the current price than buyers are willing to buy. The market must then provide a lower price so that enough buyers are generated to match the number of units willing to be sold. The argument that CB lending or selling is behind the lower gold price is very likely. Gold tends to be hoarded for a rainy day, and therefore investors that hold the above ground supply tend not to sell on bad news (because to these people it doesn't matter, gold is a store fo value, not a speculation). The current market is the result of someone selling (a cb or short seller borrowing from a cb) at a price well below the price gold must gravitate to longer term. I say that even though the annual production deficit doesn't prove that gold will rise longer term. Afterall, after having our fill of years of above ground gold, the supply demand curves might change substantially (because more folks would have gold, maybe demand less, and there would be more folks available to sell, more gold to re-circulate after the cb's dumped theirs etc.). Longer term supply demand dynamic actually depends on lots of factors, especially pop. growth, growth of other real assets, and mots important whether gold is viewed as commodity or money. Suffice it to say though that we can expect a much a higher price viewing it from ANY angle.

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (5109)	1/2/1998 7:57:00 PM
From: Richnorth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116752

It seems to me either you have missed seeing the following excerpts or have somehow forgotten about them:- Excerpts from: John Kutyn's articles in Gold Digest at gold-eagle.com 1. If we accept that government bonds and currencies are at best an illusion of wealth, and that stock markets trading at 5 times book value may be over-priced in view of falling profits and currency upheaval, then the only investment alternative is gold. Realizing this, governments have driven down the price of gold. In order for the world to continue to believe in the government promoted illusion, the price of gold must continue to fall. If the world were not on the edge of an economic collapse, the price of gold would not be so low. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2. The demand for gold is now the highest it has been in the history of mankind. At the time demand is increasing, central banks around the world are telling people that gold is a terrible asset, while they flood the market within their gold loans to drive down the price. If ONLY 1% of the U.S.$12 TRILLION in Japanese savings moves into gold, this represents a demand for 400 million ounces at today's price. This will force all shorts to cover, which are reportably as high as 8,000 tons. Combined with normal industrial demand, this would explode gold demand to a level equivalent to 10 years of mine production. Should more than 1% of Japanese savings, or other investors in the world purchase gold, even this number will be ultra-conservative. Having said that I must observe that in the short-term, the price of gold may continue to suffer... due to the public's current mis-guided perception of gold. NONETHELESS, it behooves us to understand and appreciate that the short position is so huge that it cannot possibly be covered. Therefore, the only hope for salvation of the shorts is (try) to destroy the value of gold. The laws of economics are like the laws of science. They are based on logic and reasoning and pure mathematics. When man chooses to ignore these laws or create new ones unto himself, he must face the ultimate consequence. One day we will go to sleep as the world is now. And when we awaken, it will have changed in a manner that will never be the same. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Excerpted from: forbes.com Gold market professionals agree that overshadowing the various species of short-sellers, mine-hedgers and lesser central bank disposals, there has been a truly immense seller. This seller has brutally crushed several promising rallies, nullifying usually dependable technical indicators and enormously encouraging major short-sellers, who are now confident that they can easily cover their positions. The culprit is widely suspected to be the Dutch central bank, perhaps with accomplices. What's the Dutch game? A good guess is that the Netherlands Central Bank fears that the European Central Bank coming onstage in 1998 will ban the conversion of gold into income-producing assets. The Dutch supposedly want to beat the deadline, expected to be very early in the year.

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (5109)	1/3/1998 7:21:00 AM
From: Mark Hutnick	Respond to of 116752

Ron, I beleive there IS a shortage of gold AND someone/group of people are controlling the price of gold. In fact, if I were to bet on it, it is our own Federal Reserve. In simplistic terms, if the price of gold stays down, then our gov't can back into a claim that inflation is low or non-existent. This will make the politicians look good, who will go for re-elections. It will also curb federal and state spending on 'social-type' entitlements (like the elderly, poor, education, fed'l employees pensions, etc. GReenspan is behind everything. He is an inflation hawk so intent on keeping inflation down, he has gone to the extreme of manipulating every facet of our/world economy to stand up and say, "I did it, I killed inflation". We, the people, have been lied to, giving false impressions, and even manipulated in our every day lives. The next president, whoever that might be, will fail miserably. Why? because no one can lie to the American people as well as Clinton and his cabinet. No One! Cheers,

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (5109)	7/3/2001 7:28:17 AM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116752

STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE U.S.-Japan summit: No substance Tokyo's economic paralysis kept major issues from being discussed -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Editor's note: In partnership with Stratfor, the global intelligence company, WorldNetDaily publishes daily updates on international affairs provided by the respected private research and analysis firm. Look for fresh updates each afternoon, Monday through Friday. In addition, WorldNetDaily invites you to consider STRATFOR membership, entitling you to a wealth of international intelligence reports usually available only to top executives, scholars, academic institutions and press agencies. © 2001 WorldNetDaily.com Last weekend's U.S.-Japan summit between President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi -- the first for both leaders since taking office -- should have been a significant event for two reasons: Bush and Koizumi preside over the world's two largest economies, and the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing new volatility in security issues, particularly with respect to China. But apart from Koizumi's public declaration that he will not oppose Bush's rejection of the Kyoto treaty on global warming, the two leaders sidestepped a number of significant economic and politico-military issues: The Japanese economy is mired in a decade-long slump, and Tokyo's repeated attempts at recovery have all failed. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is somewhere between a slowdown and a mild recession. Relations between the United States and China have deteriorated following the EP-3 incident and since China has detained several U.S.-based scholars and citizens. Bush recently said the United States would support Taiwan militarily in a crisis with the mainland, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld reportedly wants to reorient the U.S. military away from Europe and toward Asia. Koizumi has become the first Japanese prime minister since World War II to publicly raise the question of amending Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution so as to permit the development of offensive military capabilities. (Currently, the Japanese Self-Defense Force is organized and equipped to wage only defensive operations around the home islands.) All of these issues directly affect the U.S.-Japanese relationship and should have dominated the agenda. But they went undiscussed; instead a strange silence permeated the summit. The fact that none these issues came up during the talks at Camp David is significant in and of itself. The sense of ennui in U.S.-Japanese relations stems from a mutual understanding that Japan is incapable of rescuing its economy from depression. Japan's problems are ultimately social and political -- not economic. Japan's economy soared in the 1980s when the government provided private industries with artificially reduced interest rates that were well below world rates. They were able to do this by forced savings subsequently loaned to Japanese businesses with a tiny markup. Thus, Japan was able to invest in industrial plants at below world-market rates, and its industries were able to undercut other businesses in pricing. At the same time, however, Japan's peculiar dependence on debt (rather than equity financing) led to one of the world's lowest rates of return on capital in the 1990s. But a crisis was brewing. As high interest rates triggered unemployment, restructuring and austerity elsewhere, Japan experienced none of these developments. As Japanese output expanded and market share increased, profitability fell. The consequence of trading capital formation for market share was the hollowing out of the Japanese financial system. And as the West grew more competitive, the Japanese found themselves stagnating. In a free-market economy, the result would have been a massive recession that resulted in lower domestic consumption, higher unemployment and corporate bankruptcies and downsizing -- short-term pain that sets the stage for long-term economic recovery. But nothing like that happened in Japan. That is because Japan's social system is not constructed to absorb the massive instability of genuine economic restructuring. The political system, which reflects the social ethos, is incapable of taking actions that are both necessary and inherently destabilizing. A key component of Japanese culture is a contract that is built on preserving the stability of social relations. Since major recessions rip apart social relations and create new ones, it is easier -- from a social and political standpoint -- for Japan to accept long-term stagnation and economic decline rather than instigate painful reforms. worldnetdaily.com