Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (43652)	1/3/1998 9:08:00 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Mary, re: PC's product evolution: "How about comparing it to the telephone or the fax machine?" I also thought a good comparison would be the electric typewriter, but your analogies are as good or better. The problem I run into is that PC's are at their essence are multi-purpose, although there is spill over, what they are used for in the home is mostly different than what they are used for in business. They become almost a different product (if you accept that a product is defined by it uses and/or benefits), depending on if they are destined for the home or for business. To try to base sales projections on other products which were essentially single function, I don't think that works. Many months ago on this thread there was a link posted to a chart that showed the relative acceptance of products from their introduction to their ultimate leveling off of penetration, and the time frame, automobiles, fax machines, color TV's, microwaves, were included. Great chart, really showed the accelleration of acceptance of new technology. IF ANYONE STILL HAS A LINK TO THIS OR HAS IT ON FILE, IT WOULD BE VERY INTERESTING TO REVIEW. A note, in the appliance business, it was always felt that when a product reached about 40% penetration, prices started to drop and the product would quickly become a "standard" appliance, with a much higher penetration rate (if it didn't meet that threshold, it would always remain a specialty product). PC's seem to be on that threshold and behaving as an appliance would. re: "What is the current penetration rate (for PC's) and what are its prospects in business and in homes?" I think most research agrees that home penetration is somewhere just north of 40%, this years Christmas sales may change that to the plus side. Prospects in the home?, I don't think that 80%+ is out of the question in 5 years. My GUESS is that we will see $499. PC's next Christmas, and I would guess that is a magic price point, as it seemed to be with 25" TVs and VCRs, that will quickly accelerate penetration. Business?, I wouldn't want to guess. I think others are much more qualified to make "guesses" in this area. The PC, as far as I know is unique in product history in that it has so many different functions/benefits. One person may buy it for communication, one for on-line banking, another for on line trading, one for finacial analysis, another as an educational tool, one as an entertainment device. Then you have the functions that haven't really taken off yet, family video conferencing, digital photography, interactive digital HDTV. And most important, you have the functions/benefits that nobody has thought of yet. I'm looking forward to see how this plays out over the next few years. John