To: Ed Pakstas who wrote (1052 ) 1/3/1998 9:20:00 AM From: the Chief Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3650
Ed asked of Dean: If in fact the present tonnage is correct and the future earnings of this puppy are 2.85/share, then at what multiple should we be trading at???... ed Here is what Dean said: The gross metal value which most people focused on was $55.00 US per ton. Using a median recovery rate of 85% and a NSR of 35% for Pb, 45% for Zn and 90% for Ag. The realized recovery is .30% for Pb, 1.34% for Zn and 1.53oz for Ag. This works out to a net value of $25.18 per ton of rock. With the deposit below 200m in depth, underground mining would be the best way to mine the deposit. This would indicate mining costs of $20.00 per ton leaving a gross profit of $5.18 per ton. From this transportation costs and capital requirements for the mine would take another $1.00 to $1.50 per ton off, leaving the net per ton at $3.58 to $4.08 per ton of rock. Using a 20 million ton cut off the deposit could be worth $ 80 million net. The recent drill results seem to show that the deposit will not be much larger than this number. With 28 million shares outstanding this works out to $2.85 per share in future earnings. IMHO - So, what Dean is saying is $2.85 per share is the value to the CRN shareholder over "the life of the mine" not annual returns. If it takes 10 years to mine this tonnage than the value will be .285 cents per year, 20 years- .1424 cents etc etc. This has been my point since the massive sulphides turned into "copper". 1% is good but their has to be "billions of pounds" and higher concentrations to make this thing work at .77 to .90 cents a lb. I agree with a following post to Dean's statement about it is difficult to do project comparisons to arrive at these figures, but, you generally have little else, to use. IMHO If the tonnage continues to increase with the latest % in copper/and the other base minerals then this thing will be relegated to an "interesting" find. That does not preclude one from enjoying short term gains in the immediate future, but it does say "don't fall in love with this "puppy"". My basic interest in this stock was unshaken until those last results. That is why I bailed (as stated in a previous post) at $2.30+ I have not got back in yet, but that does not mean I am not going to. Nor does it mean this thing is "dead". It's not over till the "slightly overweight lady sings". There is more to be learned in this program but one should be slightly cautious with these latest results. Dave Brown is correct that the discovery is supported with "credits", so if those "credits" (silver,gold,nickel) start deminishing in percentage over the many drill holes that are left, the project then must fly on "its base metal" - copper. the Chief