Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4288)	1/2/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Jay - Hey, something you an I agree on. :) I believe that it is almost certainly true that the analysts have not fully factored in the effect of the SEA problem and the effect of the DRAM pricing crash. Therefore the current estimates are probably too high for the next six months or maybe a year. Thus, the drop to around the current levels was probably warranted. I just think that 1997 was bad enough for semi equip manufacturers that they will not do considerably worse than last year. And I think the stock price will take off 6 to 9 months prior to orders. Thus I expect a lot of whip-sawing until early summer, and then I expect another large move. JMO. Clark

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4288)	1/2/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

RE: "then Mogan Stanley and many other Sell Side houses' models are at risk." What is a "Sell Side house?" Thanks, I2

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4288)	1/3/1998 3:52:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

FYI - Reasons why Taiwan is not following rest of SEA: The most recent issue of The Economist had an article on why Taiwan is showing considerably more strength than the rest of SEA. It boiled down to two main things: 1) Although 30 years ago the Taiwan govt. directed the banks to make loans to the 'right' industries (like the rest of Asia), this practice has largely faded away in Taiwan (unlike the rest of Asia, China and Japan included). 2) Bankrupcy in Taiwan is allowed. In the rest of Asia it is, for all practical purposes, not allowed. (In fact, one of the main IMF imposed reforms is to make bankrupcy easier to enforce, and quicker to occur.) Thus, all of the Taiwanese companies know that the wolf is at the door at all instants, and are more careful about debt, and the uses to which it is put. Clark