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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jonathan Bird who wrote (8367)	1/3/1998 8:42:00 AM
From: hcirteg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11057

Jon Bird- I used to respect your reasoning for WDC (and the other DD's) but your recent post leaves me with doubts. You have classicly looked at technicals and now you seem to want to ignore the absolute facts that are staring at you with regard to WDC specifically. I ask you to again look at the chart for this stock for the past 5-7 trading days and let's see how "short" you still really feel after that. I am long APM, not WDC...probably ass backwards I know, but APM popped 1 3/8 (10%). There were plenty of sellers along the way, but the buyers were overwhelming. WDC and the DD's are clearly momentum stocks. WDC has now put three strong daily performance together. The only flaw to this logic is that all three days were light trading days. However, any stock picker knows that you follow light vloume days very closely and if the DD's were dropping then I would be really worried if I were long. BUT, if I were short, I would now see my chance to cover. Now, if I were you (and the rest of you shorts), the last couple of days action would worry me. I seriously doubt the money coming in to these stocks now is for a short term ride to 18-20. WDC is fairly valued at the 21-24 range where I expect it to hit in the next 4-6 weeks. January 17.5's CALLS at $.75 look like a steal if you want a short term play. Barring any terrible news over the weekend, WDC is looking at another 1-2 points early next week b4 some minor profit taking takes place. Remember, WDC used to pop 3-4 points in a day at the peak of its momentum. WDC is on an up move and a gap up MOnday should be expected IMHO. I wish I were in...at least it should help my APM in the short run. BTW, i was going to sell APM at 11, but WDC's performance stopped me. Made me an extra couple of K for holding. Remember, like a stock that has taken a big ride up, once the momentum falters, the longs slowly bleed out and sell. We just went down that street. Now, we went around the Cul de Sac and we're going the other way. Wade Cook woudl call this a "rolling stock." The chart clearly shows the next stop is the low 20's (without news). Hey shorts: is the same thing happening here but reverse? As the momentum shifts, those who made a lot of money on the way down will begin to bail (cover) as the stock moves up. Watch how all the longs start showing back up now (like me)..I hope we have staying power. Jon...don't kid yourself. Look at the whole sector over the past week and (from a pure TA perspective) you will see the bottom and a turn up. If it were a one day thing, it would be a bounce. But it wasn't and I suspect WDC APM QNTM RDRT and SEG are all blinking BUY on many MM's screens this weekend. Again, this is a "chartisits" point of view...but the longs who have been on the sidelines are coming back. If you are short, this may be the time to take your money and run and wait for the next warnings announcment. Thanks for your input as always. HC (4th AND LONG!)