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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Landis who wrote (7470)	1/3/1998 1:02:00 PM
From: Richard Estes	Respond to of 12039

My use of insync is low risk buy at upwards break of 20 or a upwards break of 50. Sell at downwards break of 80 or downwards break of 20 or 50. I think I said all that right. Yes on many osc, I have mutiple entry/exit points they can be built into formulas for system. So if it started up thru 20, I will sell if it goes back. will buy upward break of 50 and sell if it doesn't hold. While a 8-10% loss sell is your safety valve, if all else fails.

To: Jack Landis who wrote (7470)	1/3/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: gonzongo	Respond to of 12039

Jack I agree -I spent a lot of time with stoch(55,21,5) derived from your work --- trying to find the best scenarios- and I found that a cross above 20 was safer and that signals above 80 were not necessarily sell. I tested various combinations and on a long position- came up with buys on a move up and sells on crosses below 75 as my best system test overall. I like this one better than DAHL. The Metastock/WOW formula is: enter: mov(stoch(55,21),5,w)> ref(mov(stoch(55,21),5,w),-1) and mov(stoch(55,21),5,w)< 75 and mov(stoch(55,21),5,w) >20 Exit: (mov(stoch(55,21),5,w) <75 and ref(mov(stoch(55,21),5,w),-1) >75) I also tried sells alternatively- if it does not hit 75 -- at crosses below 50 or 60. 50 seemed the best but not as good as 75 alone as above- but buys were on the turn up. I believe that stochastics signals on such a long time frame are suspect above and below 20/80 even though you miss some good parts of the move sometimes. This is based upon my WOW system tests...Here is the test for ERICY on the above formula: SYSTEM TEST PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR: stoch(55,21,5)buy up-sell<75 on ERICSSON L M TEL From 1/2/1992 to 1/2/1998 beginning with $10000.00. Current position is CLOSED S U M M A R Y Total Net Profit: $33112.03 Average trade gain/loss ($): $2069.50 Total percentage gain/loss: 331.12% Average trade gain/loss (%): 10.40% Annualized rate of return: 55.14% S U M M A R Y W I T H O U T B E S T A N D W O R S T T R A D E S Total Net Profit: $26115.10 Average trade gain/loss ($): $1865.36 Total percentage gain/loss: 261.15% Average trade gain/loss (%): 9.43% Annualized rate of return: 43.49% T R A D E S T A T I S T I C S Total no. of trades: 16 Percentage profitable trades: 75.00% No. Profitable Trades: 12 No. Losing Trades: 4 Amount of profitable trades: $40080.63 Amount of losing trades: $-8204.09 Largest profitable trade: $11852.50 Largest losing trade: $-4855.56 Average profitable trade: $3340.05 Average losing trade: $-2051.02 No. of stop hits: 0 Average gain/loss per stop: $0.00 L O N G / S H O R T B R E A K D O W N Number of Long trades: 16 Number of Short trades: 0 No. profitable Long trades: 12 No. profitable Short trades: 0 Average Long gain/loss: $1992.28 Average Short gain/loss: $0.00 T R A D E D U R A T I O N S Total no. periods in test: 1567 Number of days in test: 2192 Most consecutive wins: 6 Most consecutive losses: 2 Amt. of consecutive wins: $10484.72 Amt. of consecutive losses: $-1216.02 R I S K & E X P E N S E Max. equity drop (open): $ -1177.31 Max. equity drop (closed): $ 472.68 Max. trade drawdown: $ -6689.47 Average trade drawdown: $ -1654.02 Commissions expenses: $ 608.00 Margin interest expenses: $ 0.00 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / R A T I O S Amount of interest earned: $1235.49 Profit Factor: 4.89 Ratio Avg. Profit/Avg. Loss: 1.63 Ratio Profit/Commissions: 54.46 Here are the trades: Long 05/04/92 $5.63 LClose 07/13/92 $5.84 Long 08/20/92 $5.50 LClose 01/29/93 $5.88 Long 02/09/93 $7.53 LClose 08/04/93 $10.94 Long 09/01/93 $11.34 LClose 11/10/93 $13.09 Long 01/17/94 $11.66 LClose 07/11/94 $12.59 Long 07/13/94 $13.25 LClose 08/24/94 $13.59 Long 09/12/94 $13.44 LClose 09/29/94 $13.31 Long 10/12/94 $14.31 LClose 11/29/94 $13.66 Long 12/30/94 $13.88 LClose 08/02/95 $19.13 Long 08/21/95 $21.25 LClose 10/05/95 $21.75 Long 11/09/95 $21.63 LClose 04/02/96 $20.00 Long 05/03/96 $21.13 LClose 07/03/96 $21.75 Long 08/08/96 $21.00 LClose 12/19/96 $30.38 Long 01/08/97 $31.75 LClose 02/24/97 $32.63 Long 03/07/97 $35.25 LClose 09/05/97 $42.38 Long 09/23/97 $48.25 LClose 10/29/97 $43.38 andy

To: Jack Landis who wrote (7470)	1/3/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Loren	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

Jack - Although I'm not new at all to SI (normally stay on threads of stocks I already hold or are interested in buying), I am brand new to this thread. I'm glad to see this thread exists, because I tend to get very compartmentalized with my trading... I trade using DMI and MACD indicator systems. I trade more slowly than most, using these indicators on weekly data rather than daily data. My two cents worth regarding your questions... You mentioned using stochastic and RSI with a trending stock. These two indicators are oscillators, which by definition means they are to be used for oscillating or trendless stocks. Once a trend is established (detected by MACD or DMI or similar trend-following indicator), I think you should be careful about using oscillators. Have you tried using DMI/ADX or MACD systems? They simply identify when a stock establishes an uptrend. You buy then. When/if the uptrend breaks down, you sell. Loren