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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockdoctor who wrote (14087)	1/3/1998 11:22:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Stockdoctor, The question I pose to you and the thread is : 1) Can we see $37 by the end of January and 2) Can I see a price at least $27 or less thereafter?? Please note that I will never unload my entire position at one time in AMAT regardless of where I think it is going. This Company is too good!! 1. Potentially, depending on how the funds react to the earnings reports and conference calls of the big chip companies. This year looks to be weak for the semi-mfgs and it is still to early to assess the longer term impact of the Asian situation until we get guidance from AMAT. 2. IMHO, a 50/50 chance, also depends on how things develop in the domestic US economy due to earnings and future business for the year. IF the tech sector is out of favor due to weakness then the funds may not invest very heavily (or at all) and the stock may languish between $26-34 thruout most of the year. My projected high for the year is aout $41 if things are even half-way decent in the sector. That would be presplit price of $82 and may be to high. FWIW, My strategy is nearly identical to yours, I will pull out 50% of my position if I make >25% profits from my previous re-entry point in Dec, depends on the variables I mentioned above. Just my opinion. BB

To: stockdoctor who wrote (14087)	1/3/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Howard Bennett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Look for a bounce up in AMAT from this quarter's earnings. I know someone who works at AMAT and they told me that so far they have only seen a 10% delay (NOT cancelation) in orders for machines for the next quarter. However, the current quarter looks good...so this quarter's report is likely to look good. Look for the fine print in the report for management's outlook for the next 2-3 quarters. Plus AMAT has a new (cheaper) series of lower cost machines coming out. (This I cannot elaborate on.) I guess the future (2-3 quarters out) depends largely on how many of the machine orders are delayed. At this point that is indeterminate.