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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lester e. who wrote (14097)	1/3/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

. The traders have taken our thread away from us. Lester, The thread was not "taken away", rather some the former AMAT Bulls are hibernating. Do Bulls hibernate?<G> IMHO however, this is exactly the time they should be here making the case, if they have one, for AMAT to move higher against those with a more Bearish stance. When a stock increases 5 fold in one year, there really isn't much need for a discussion- everone is fat and happy and making $$. However, slapping each other on the back really is not productive IMO nor does it serve the needs of anyone trying to assess where AMAT will go from there. Now is the time when the ardent Bulls should present themselves and make their case. Regards from a true AMAT Bull, Brian

To: Lester e. who wrote (14097)	1/3/1998 5:10:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Lester, Nice to hear from you! Actually I kind of like having some "new blood" on the thread but I miss the long termers posts. If it wasn't for the traders the stock might not give us the "thrills". Remember, we each invest the way we feel most comfortable, the goal is to use the market to MAKE MONEY, some are more "risk oriented" individuals who thrive on the "high" of making a good trade and fast money. I do it occasionally also, so I am empathetic to their motivations. This kind of reminds me of the story of the hare and the tortise from childhood stories. The idea is to get to the finish line, it doesn't matter how fast you get there, as long as you meet your objective. Regards, BB

To: Lester e. who wrote (14097)	1/4/1998 2:05:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

Lester: Happy New Year! Don't complain about the traders. In the long term, the change in the stock price will be proportional to the change in the EPS. Nothing any trader, manipulator, analyst, guru, Korean banker, or SI poster says or does will change that. It is inevitable and predictable. It will make me and you rich. What they can do is create great buying opportunities, and great selling oppurtunities. If not for traders with very short time horizons, the Efficient Market Theory would be correct, and AMAT would always sell at a PE equal to its long-term EPS growth rate, with little variation. Can any rational explanation be given as to why the market priced this company 5 times higher from the 1996 low to the 1997 high, and then cut the market cap in half at the end of the year? Is the intrinsic value of this company really only about half what it was in August? Only herd behavior and short attention spans can explain it. There are many people, with a lot of money, who know that AMAT is a great company, but who aren't going to buy the stock until they see some upward momentum, or until their broker tells them to buy, or until the analysts upgrade. Hungry penguins on the shore. They will all jump in at once, and continue jumping in for far too long. If I was a trader, I'd sell at the open on monday. As has been pointed out very clearly, the chart pattern of AMAT (and KLIC, KLAC, ASMLF, NVLS) are at the end of a wedge or flag formation. When volume dries up completely, and the daily range contracts to nothing, then these stocks will make an abrupt move in the same direction they were going before the wedge formed. I just hope AMAT holds at 26. If the stock bounces off 26, and if the DRAM price stops its freefall (resuming its normal 30%/year decline), and if we go a couple of months without a push-out or fab cancellation or semi company bankrupcy, then it will be time to add to my position. Like you, I started buying too soon in this downturn. Don't worry, those shares we bought at 34 will look great in a few years. Actually, I'm thinking of adding ASMLF or KLAC instead of more AMAT. I'm curious: what is your second choice for semi-equips?

To: Lester e. who wrote (14097)	1/5/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: roly	Respond to of 70976

Lester e., We may get your bithday wish! <eom>

To: Lester e. who wrote (14097)	1/7/1998 8:12:00 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Everybody, Sorry for not Posting for a while; I haven't abandoned AMAT or this thread. I just didn't have Good news to say until now... Predicting the future is a tricky business. My prediction of 250% gain for 1997 was way too short, although the stock managed to gain 200% in August...How about my other prediction---a double in 1998?...Well, maybe this time 60 price is easier for the stock to attain (the stock has been near there at 54), you see, Good Silicon Valley stocks do always come back to hit New Highs...Let me caution others, these predictions are only for my investment guides, although high---they serve me well, anyway... Looks like we have bottomed at just above 25!...The AMAT Yoyo Kid is about to plant its first step going Up the staircase---Friday's rise created the Riser and yesterday's and probably today's pullback will serve as the Step:--- techstocks.com Well, maybe the stock would revisit the lows later, but one thing is noticiable now---the stock wants to go Up!... Actually, there's a changing of market sentiment going on: from extreme bearishness to guarded bullishness. Remember, Alan Greenspan helped create the financial problems in Asia by making it known in Aug that the stock market's rise is "not sustainable"...Now that Alan's wish came true---the economy slowed---easing of interest rates might be in the wings...