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To: stak who wrote (43718)	1/3/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: stak	Respond to of 186894

PC-TV Convergence TV-PC Which way to go,that is the question. To TV the PC or PC the TV. The Gateway Destination is a great example of TVing the PC. With a nice big screen and plenty of cpu power along with DVD-ROM the D6-233 is a sure pleaser. Wireless keyboard and mouse give good useability without tying one to connector cables. It's pretty easy to pass the mouse or keyboard over when they're wireless, but it's probably a lot easier to lose them under papers etc too. Look for Gateway to include a cable modem too when a standard is set. The TV-PC side of the equation is best shown by the example of Toshiba's Infinia line. The Infinia 7260 doesn't have DVD-ROM yet,but it won't be long in coming. The beauty of the Infinia is the In-Touch Module. The module has ten control buttons in addition to the volume, dial, and sleep buttons. The lower five buttons let you select between speakerphone, answering machine, CD player, television, and FM stereo, with the upper five used to control the selected function. This module lets pc novices to use these functions without having to go into the software files and load in the right program. Simple is best, really it is. Just put a CD into the drive and hit the CD player button and voila. This brings me to my theory that TV-PC will be more successful than PC-TV. (I know that I'm going completely against conventional wisdom with my opinion). The pc is more of a solitary activity than tv by a wide margin. It's not too often when you have 2-3 people watching the computer screen with the primary user. On the other hand tv is something that is enjoyed by a group just as easily as by a single person(nevermind the fights for the remote control). With the Destination I would have trouble enjoying myself if someone else was doing the web surfing. There's too many choices and each person would tend to have a definite way that they would control the action. Could you imagine the Al Bundy family surfing together for more than 5 seconds. Not me. As the primary tv I don't see Destination being popular for regular surfers. As the secondary tv(say in the den) it would be excellent for a single user. The Infinia would also be great in the den as a secondary tv with computer functions. I don't see it working out as the primary tv though. Not even with a large monitor can I see it being popular. Ok even with wireless In-Touch Module control. Don't get me wrong I love the Infinia's concept.Toshiba,please build a $1,000 Infinia! All this leads to a troubling question. Isn't the set-top box supposed to bring the tv into the digital pc age? Can the cable modem be tied into the primary tv in the household only. Doesn't another line HAVE to go into the other pc's in the household? For the life of me I can't see the couch potatos turning into computer geeks(web surfers) en masse. In this round I see Intel having an advantage over Microsoft,unless Microsoft can work its way into being the O/S of choice for the STB. No one knows what OpenCable will choose though. Time will tell... still it seems a little bit of a case of mixing oil and water to me.

To: stak who wrote (43718)	1/3/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: stak	Respond to of 186894

High Definition Television-- HDTV HDTV is probably a couple of years away and it's also not the natural turf of either Intel or Microsoft. But, humor me and listen for a second. Television is set to go to digital broadcast from analog in the near future. (It will be quite awhile before analog is dropped so don't expect overnight changes). Why would I mention HDTV?!? What is the relevance to the pc industry? Let me put forward this scenario: The real competition for Intel will not be AMD or Cyrix in the future. The penetration of pcs in the US has been stuck at about 40% of households. The remaning 60% have been reluctant to take the pc plunge. I truly believe that the pcs' real obstacle to higher market penetration is going to be the HDTV. In a couple of years when HDTV debuts, I strongly think that a high percentage of consumers will be using the spare two or three thousand of disposable income on a HDTV,NOT ON A 2nd or 3rd PC. Most definitely not a 2-3,000$ first pc. This will be murder on sales forecasts of all pc related companies. The day of the 3,000$ pc is dead.likely the 2,000$ pc as well when HDTV hits its stride. In 1998,pc's could be down to the $500 range or less, will Intel find a way to cash in? I don't feel it will. If a $1,000 pc is "segment zero" then can a $500 pc be "segment sub-zero"? Can Intel make margins on $500 pcs??? Microsoft on the other hand is not nearly as affected by the downturn of pc prices. It still sells a Windows95, CE or NT O/S. no matter how high or low the cost of the pc. And don't forget Microsoft is going to make more coin selling WIN98 in a few months. I don't see Microsoft being affected (good or bad) by the emergence of HDTV in the future either. Well then again who knows Microsoft could have a plan or two for HDTV. DISPOSABLE INCOME WILL SPLIT BY THE YEAR 2000 1) IT WILL GO TO BUYING A FIRST OR EXTRA PC OR DVD. 2) IT WILL GO TO BUYING A HDTV Which would you spend your dollar on?!? Think of the demographics: The boomers are gettin to middle and senior ages. At that age the eyes start to go. I can just hear " Oh dear,look the picture is so much sharper let's buy HDTV I don't understand that computer crap anyway."