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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (5240)	1/4/1998 9:30:00 AM
From: Robert K.	Respond to of 17367

I know what he is driving at. I think they have a great molecule in bpi and are targeting it well. Additionally they may get many drugs from it. Regarding p3 trails of 1-4 years and 53 million. Nah. We have 2 trials in p3 and both should complete in under 2 years AND we get priority status from fda towards early approval. In fact if p3 has that failure rate and one was a betting person who plays the odds, then one might assume that they will get approval. If I may repost my note.......... If you look at x from a mechanical perspective (generic % chance of approval) 5000 preclinical compund =1 approval 5000 preclinical= 5 into ind phase 1=20% approval phase 2=30% approval phase 3 =50% approval (all approximates therefore x has 2 in p3 (50% x2)= we should net 1 approval x has 1 in p2 +we should net .3 approval xhas 2-3 in p1 =we should net .2 approval x has 2 close to ind =we should net .1 approval est so total approvals expected to date= 1.6 approved bob so If you play the odds we get one through p3 within 2-3 years. bob