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Strategies & Market Trends : Why the markets will continue higher... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (338)	1/3/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 745

Thanks for the informative post. You refered to the four-year chart of the DJI and the consolidation phase in beginning in early August. Look at 1994 on the the DJI chart. I'm betting (literally) that the period we entered in August 1997 is similar to the period beginning in January 1994. Market sectors took turns getting slammed, but overall, the market remained in a trading range. That's where we're at now, a rolling bear market like 1994. The tech stocks, specifically semiconductor and semi equipment companies, are truly in a bear market, in my opinion. This is consistant with your TA indicating a "bear market" in the Nasdaq. However, while the tech stocks are in a bear, consumer non-durables (CL, K, HRD), baby bells (SBC), regional banks, etc. are near their alltime highs. In the next six to twelve months, the various sectors will take turns going through their own bear markets, but the overall market will remain in a trading range between about 7150 and 8500. Just a guess, but I am putting my money where my mouth is. Best wishes, I2

To: bearshark who wrote (338)	1/10/1998 9:07:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 745

Hi I2: This post that I am responding to can make a person believe in technical analysis. It scares me. 1. The market met the 7950 resistance level and could not climb through it convincingly. 2. We broke down from the triangle and it appears we are heading lower. 3. The short term overbought condition was satisfied with nearly a 400 point drop in the DJI. In the beginning of the week, I rearranged my entire holdings and eliminated all long positions. I then began to take short positions. Now I have a short term oversold condition (that was developed in extreme trading). The next big thing in my mind is the "iron trendline" at 7250. Ok, now this is what will happen to me. Everything I expect will go according to plan; I will complete all of my speculations; the market will then do the opposite of what I anticipate; and I will get my clock cleaned.