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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gnuman who wrote (43763)	1/3/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: StockMan	Respond to of 186894

Gene, Re -- To illustrate, if we arbitrarily assign $20 Billion 1998 revenues to the PC CPU, (which would keep it about flat to 1997), and if Intel captures 80 million units in 1998, (about 80% share), the ASP FOR THE YEAR must be $250. I think you have to admit that P55C will be a heavy drag on ASP's. Therefore I conclude that a quick conversion to PII is necessary to meet the ASP objective, and by implication the revenue and earnings objectives. BulSit !!!! Stockman

To: gnuman who wrote (43763)	1/3/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Gene - Re: " ...and if Intel captures 80 million units in 1998, (about 80% share), the ASP FOR THE YEAR must be $250. I think you have to admit that P55C will be a heavy drag on ASP's." Intel can accomplish these objectives if it captures 90% of the CPU market at an ASP of $220. My point is that Intel is competing today as they have always done - and will continue to do - and try to capture as much of the market as they can due to superior execution. As for the Pentium MMX - Intel has stated many times that they hope to be 50% Pentium II/Deschutes by July 1998 and 98% by January, 1999. As for flawless execution - perhaps I should have rephrased that "near" flawless execution. Compare Intel's execution to its profitless competitors - then factor in how difficult it is to compete with companies with no compunction for selling products at a loss (AMD & Cyrix). You should appreciate Intel's ability to generate Billions of dollars per quarter in profit in view of these concerns. As for Intel's stock price - hey - it goes up, it goes down. They are putting in place a long term strategy for growth. If that impacts near term margins - so be it. Any investor in Intel who does not recognize the impact in these price wars should exit their Intel investment immediately and invest in a stock that only goes up. Perhaps you can recommend one. Paul

To: gnuman who wrote (43763)	1/3/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Gene, I will only say this. If you are an investor in Intel and you believe in a static model of near zero growth in wordwide demand for CPU's. Then your right, you should get out of Intel right away. What I believe, and I think what some others are saying, is that growth in CPU demand has only just begun. Worldwide penetration of computers is still rediculously low. Visualize this scenerio for a moment. The PC penetration rate in homes in America rise from 40% to 55% in the next 4 years. The developed countries of the world rise from 25% to 40%. China, India, and most of the Latin American countries rise from less than 5% to 20%. Even if ASP prices fall to below $200.00. Intel's future looks tremendously bright. Some would say, the above scenerio seems rediculously optimistic. I don't. With the advent of the Internet, Video phones, voice activation, and all the great educational software sure to come out with DVD technology. I think this is a real possibility! Now take it just that one step further....If decent game playing computers are being sold for $400.00. Why buy a Sega or Nintendo?? If that happens, as Andrew Grove recently alluded to in a speech, Every middle income home in America will have at least two computers. One for mom and Dad, the other for the kids. Now throw in faster bandwith and college courses go online in droves! Then Merced arrives in full bloom! And so I continue to buy Intel every month, and believe in a few short years it will become obvious to everyone. Michael

To: gnuman who wrote (43763)	1/4/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 186894

As you suggest, Intel has made a lot of mistakes in the past. It may have even had more than it's share of mistakes. What separates Intel from most other companies is the speed at which they have recognised these mistakes, and their remarkable ability to take corrective action. Admitting to error is difficult for an individual to do, and even more difficult for an organization to do, because it has so much invested in the previous way of doing things. Intel seldom falls into this prior investment trap. They bite the bullet and without undue delay, fix the problem. This is the mark of a great company.