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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Esvida who wrote (376)	1/3/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 9980

Al: I think your perception relative to the US debt is correct. I would like to point out that US debt has increased by $180 this year (some of which, I think is advanced borrowing and lending to others), yet the US paid out to its debt holders about $300 Billion. That means that $120 Billion were looking for a home. That could be a partial explanation of the strength of our bond market. Some of this $120 billion was a net decrease in Japan's of US debt. If the same situation continues, we can absorb repatriation of more than $100 billion from Asia and still have greater demand than supply in our bond market. I think that my suggestion of seeing 5.5% long term bonds by the middle of the year is not impossible at all. Zeev

To: Esvida who wrote (376)	1/3/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Rmn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Al I agree with you about the value of the democratic system and and its legacy. But all this did not prevent a major depression in the 20's when gov't, corporate, and private debt was negligible in relative as well as absolute value in relation to today. The valuations of US equities are higher now than then as per PE, Book Value, what have you. In the 20's there was also a surge of global protectionism spurred on by currencu devaluations. This is now occurring. I wonder how long before the U.S. corporations and unions start bellyaching for mor tarrifs and protection from all the cheap products that will be flooding our markets from asia. Respectfully Ramsey

To: Esvida who wrote (376)	1/3/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: Rational	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Al: I am inclined to believe (in the absence of hard facts) that US leverage (direct and indirect) as a percent of GDP is dangerously high. We do not hear about the "balance of payments" problems here because it is taken care by the market place. Most US corporations are, however, smarter and very efficient. I would rather avoid a discussion on the socio political systems and the intangible value of living in a country. But, briefly, despite all the virtues of US, she is the murder capital of the world, with a non-trivial chance for someone living here getting killed by stray bullets and with youngsters getting judged by peers by the number of sex-partners they can muster in High School. The mind-boggling crime rate in the US is despite the fact that she has the largest concentration of per-capital jailed criminals in the world. For instance, the US capital (Wash DC) has a population of 750,000 and about 450 are killed every year. In a very crowded city like Bombay with 15 mil people, the murder rate is a tiny fraction with less than a score killed every year; an American visa officer friend of mine (deputed to Bombay) was telling me that he could without fear walk on the streets even during late in the night. These serious intangible quality differences stem from the very social fabric of most Asian countries and are invaluable. Sankar