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To: Ed Pettee who wrote (176)1/3/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: David W. Tucker  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 7701
 
Ed: I like your analysis of possible Q1 numbers. However, without looking back at all my information, my impression of the attorney's report was that he just plucked the revenue projection numbers from NorAm press releases. I did not get anything from the report making me feel like he tried to predict revenues in any way. His report was more of a legal opinion on the general scope of the Cojedes project.

Without any clear time table at this point, I'm starting to have some trouble in predicting when any particular groups of VLT's will be installed (and I don't think the attorney had any info on this either, except from the press releases). At this point, I expect to see 105 VLT's up and running real soon. But since it takes so long to ship new ones, I'll be surprised if we see 100 per month until later in '98. Who knows? We don't know anything about the status of pending machines located in the U.S. at this time. Are they working on 100?...500? My impression is that although these machines look slick, they're modular in nature and easy to assemble for shipping. Final assembly is conducted in V-land, along with the installation of memory chips (ROM or Flash) programmed in the U.S. So I don't think it takes long to put these things together. The hardest part of the design and programming work has already been done.

From your quick analysis, I think we could derive that NorAm needs to get about 200 machines up and running by the middle of the quarter to obtain the revenues and show a profit. I feel there will be quite a delay in getting money for any given period into NorAm's hands.

These are mysteries we must deal with during this start-up phase. But looking past all of this into the second half of '98, NorAm should be doing find and operating well into the profit range (IMO).

My mindset now is turning towards Q2 of '98 where things should look a lot different.

Permission to use your Q1 projection in the FAQ?

dave