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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JR2 who wrote (29269)	1/4/1998 1:52:00 AM
From: john dodson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

-- Off Topic -- SHVA Shiva is a fallen star. No one has any faith in 'em right now. So, of course they're gonna trade at a discount. "Show me the $" -- that's what the street has been saying to SHVA for 3 straight quarters now, and SHVA hasn't done it. They're about to make it 4 straight quarters bleeding red. Additionally, there is a very real question about Shiva's obsolesence and survival. That is can they keep from dying on the vine while the big 4 (CSCO, COMS, ASND, & BAY) continue to expand and inevitably eventually gobble up SHVA's remote access niche. Without a stronger partner, I don't see SHVA making it. Having said that, the sales multiples you quote are less meaningful in the face of declining sales. With no confidence in sales growth -- which seems to be the case at the moment for SHVA -- it's hard to feel good about using sales multiples to value SHVA. In other words I see sales multiples as pretty dynamic, and heavily depending on sales growth rates and projections, which seem to constantly change. If you really believe in SHVA, though, back up the truck and buy more! It does seem to be gathering critical mass at $8-$9. Something's gotta give soon! This is a pretty high point of pessimism for SHVA, which is usually either a good time to buy or to get out all together. Good luck, -John Dodson