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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Landis who wrote (7494)	1/4/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: David R. Evans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

Hello Jack, I'm not sure what you mean but I'm sure it would depend on the type of buy you were looking for. I'm looking for a short term win that MIGHT turn into a longer term winner. If the medium term indicators are moving in the right direction then it gives me a better feeling for the time potential of the move. I am not looking for a turnaround necessarily. By using the longer term indicators for direction I am also trying to eliminate the false starts. How many times have you seen a stock start it's move with a few missteps before it finally starts it's journey. By insisting that the preponderance of the evidence is in the UP direction many of these missteps can be avoided. That's what I'm trying to do. You will also notice that many of the trades this system finds are very similar to the Type one trades from GET. They are breaking out of a regression channel and starting their next leg up. Please remember that I was never a very big proponent of the type one trades because I could never seem to get them right but I'm sure you could add many of it's rules to this system and get the same results.. Will I miss moves to the upside? Yes but that's fine with me as long as my percentages once I'm in a stock are high.... I would rather miss some moves then lose money on a trade. If I were following only one stock and intending to go long term with it I'd use Dahl and forget all the rest. I think Dahl will give you the best results on any system test over time. If I wanted ONE system that worked in all types of markets on all types of stocks I'd again use Dahl. The truth of the matter is I can not buy one stock and just sit back and watch. I need to be involved or I lose interest. I'm trading not only to make money but also because I love to trade. That makes it necessary for me to intervene. That's why I use the system I use. I can pick the short term entry and then watch as the stock DEVELOPES into a Dahl trade. Once StochRSI (14) leads me to a positive buy signal from Dahl I can decide to ride it to the end OR get out and ride a different stock. Either way I put myself BACK into control... In the case where the stock's StochRSI (14) reading does not go UP THROUGH 80 and then drop down I will have already had MACD (8-17-9) Optimized Parabolic SAR, EMS Xovers, and maybe even StochRSI (8-5) sell signals to move me out. I have NO PROBLEM passing on a stock that eventually proves to be a winner because I know that I will never catch them all. I also have no problem testing my system only in the environment I will actually trade it in because I am not trying to win competitions, I only want to make Money and have some fun doing it. When I do test the system out on one stock I get very good results. The one problem I do have testing it is I can not include all the indicators in the test. Optimized Parabolic SAR is only in GET and can not be system tested or scanned for. Yes, I can use SAR in MSWIN BUT it is not the same. Yes, I can optimize SAR in MSWIN but once again, it is not the same. In fact, I'm not totally sure how you do optimize Parabolic SAR in MSWIN BUT I know I was told it can be done so I believe it. The true test of a system is not the results of a system test on one stock. That type of test can not take into account what you do with your money when your out of that one stock. If during your downtime you put that money into another winning trade how will the system test calculate those results?????? The only thing you can do is look at the percentage of winners and make some broad based assumptions based on them. The other think you can do is review your results with an open mind and make some realistic decisions. Are your trades doing what you want them to do? Is your money growing the way you want it to do? Are you satisfied with the way you are trading? Dave Evans