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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Turk who wrote (16118)	1/4/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Bill, IMO crude will bounce around off the current lows, I don't expect a run up to 24. February crude had a blip Friday due to API stocks being slightly less than forecast. However, OPEC has officially sanctioned the "real world" production ceilings with a 10% boost and I expect Iraq will cut a deal to get back on path with the UN export provisions. Add to that the lessening of demand due to IMF Korean growth and the Asian slowdown from last year's demands, 1998 looks slower to me with more than adequate product already in the pipeline. The XOI index has taken a fall and may recover to overhead resistance of about 471.4 (eyeballing).. but I would take any significant uptick as a selling opportunity. Jim

To: Bill Turk who wrote (16118)	1/4/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Bill-off topic Oil in my opinion is priced on 'availability to consumer'not what is available as reserves, my level of price is looking into future and identifying potential areas of disturbances whereby such conflicts can affect the supplies- I think every year we need to high light areas where unforeseenable decline can hit the market in my opinion oil prices can be affected due to some geographical disturbances leading to shortfalls in supply - Caspian routes and black sea exports of Russia if situation in Russia gets tricky we can see Oil prices greatly affected another area is increasing I Iranian influence under its new President Khatami- now I don't won't to get involved in real politics but if peace process is stalled permanently in ME the Saudi and Iranian camp within OPEC which anyway controls only 46& of Global supplies can have common political interest- I also see that US policy of dual containment of Iraq and Iran further being discredited as US allies like Saudis and littoral states assert their own policy of diplomatic engagement with Iraq and Iran this will greatly tip the balance within Opec and will equip division ridden OPEC with some restoration of lost ability to control prices, a single battle group which rushes to Strait of Hormuz in Oct resulted in swings in Oil prices the recent turn of events within Russia/ME can serve the jolt which may bring about supply manipulated pricing.