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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zebra 365 who wrote (4269)	1/4/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: Bradpalm1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

I've heard that ICOS is studying an oral Type V-PDE inhibitor for the ED market similar to PFE's sildenafil. Has anybody else heard any details about this? Bradpalm1

To: Zebra 365 who wrote (4269)	1/4/1998 12:16:00 PM
From: LoLoLoLita	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 23519

Zebra, I have to say that your posts add great value to this forum. Two points for discussion: 1. I recall from the CC that the second factory was inspected by the European (or UK?) Medicine Control Authority (MCA) on 12/5/97 and that approval? was expected in 30 days (or early January?). If history repeats itself (as is usually the case IMHO), they will have to fix some things before getting a perfect report card. (Peering into my Crystal Ball, there is a vision that maybe this is the "inside information" that caused the recent flame here--such a thing would be known to many people at Vivus, Paco, in Europe, and maybe at the FDA too.) Does anyone have any information on the status of the MCA inspection report? Also, will MCA approval of the second plant allow shipments to non-UK countries such as Sweden where approval is expected next? 2. The MUSE applicator device could, theoretically, be used with future combination therapies that might not even include alprostadil: e.g. phosphodiesterase drugs, alpha-blockers, etc. So the future revenue stream could be affected greatly by any adverse reports re the MUSE device such as urethral pain, inflammation, or even infection. To all the prescribing M.D.s: how painful is the application process? How many patients are averse to trying it? And, how many adverse reactions are found to the applicator? David

To: Zebra 365 who wrote (4269)	1/4/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: Andrew H	Respond to of 23519

I thought the thread might find the lastest revisions and explanations from one brokerage house (CR) interesting. What is troubling here to investors that read it is the very low estimate for 1998 as well as the suggestion that manufacturing approvals might be delayed for up to 6 months. Perhaps they know something, perhaps they don't. But if other analysts are thinking this way, it could help to explain the large short position. Note that in any case, they say the fundamentals remain favorable. >>TABLE 1: ESTIMATE REVISIONS Sales Estimates ($000s) 4Q/97E 1997E 1998E Revised estimates 29,000 129,367 199,481 Prior estimates 41,500 141,849 325,000 EPS Estimates ($) 4Q/97E 1997E 1998E Revised estimates $0.21 $1.07 $0.92 Prior estimates $0.33 $1.19 $2.51 P/E Multiples (price: $13.38)12.7x 14.5x CONCLUSION We remain somewhat bearish on the prospects for the stock's performance over the next six months or so. Though we believe the fundamentals in the broad competitive environment remain favorable, we have always believed that the key to this story in the near term was having production come on-line in a timely fashion. We believe that manufacturing regulatory approvals that were expected to occur for both Europe and the United States at the end of this year and the first quarter, respectively, could be delayed to the latter half of the 1998. We believe that the stock is unlikely to trade significantly above the current range until there is final resolution of the manufacturing problems.<<