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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug R who wrote (10004)	1/5/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: ivan solotaroff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79178

"a few hundred examples of stocks that fell 80% or more and run them through the research process. I'll come up with a system for them." DDDDDDDDDOOOOOOOGOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!! Don't you ever sleep? Inasmuch as APM is, in esse, a failed MIMBO, maybe you could also try the long down trendline you use to confirm the BO, and see if, tweaked properly, it gives you a clue. I assume you're using the line from the pre-collapse high to the spike peak of 7/16 to determine a short-term goal of 20; if you go back four business days (7/9?), which I would take to have been an initial, pre-retest (BO on volume) buy signal, you get an altogether different line, of course. The one I see, just eyeballing the chart, takes you to support at somewhat lower than was actually achieved on this "80 percent" signal day. If I'm even remotely correct, Friday, though a magnificent time to have bought, would not have been a buy signal. Ivan PS: I just don't see the point of comparing a collapse like APM's to the PGDCEB. As you were the first to point out, it's the gap itself that makes the whole difference. When you say it signaled the same way as a cat, aren't you just saying that it showed a form of exhaustion bottom with an intraday blowoff and recovery offering a possible clue to further research? As co-keeper of the cattery, I defend my felines from bootless comparison.

To: Doug R who wrote (10004)	1/5/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: ivan solotaroff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79178

Doug, Went back over the posts and realized where the "signal-day" confusion was coming from. (I had mentioned a possible short-hop play on ZITL to Dave H., Ocote, in his hellfire desire to short, got back to me on it, and I think that's where Sergio came in, thinking I might be interested in APM vis T.H.E. Cat, blah-blah.) In my "work" with Esteban (he does all the work), I noticed a possibility for an extremely sharp post-gap buy signal, which gave a chance to catch the falling knife before the exhaustion bottom set in. Recalling conversations with cats I've had over the years in lonely garages and New York City streetcorners, I decided to call the "signal" (if it actually exists) a MEEP (Mega-Early Entry Point). The signal is any point above a line drawn from the top of the first high after the gap (it can very well BE the high OF the gap-day) and the top of the next high thereafter, which tends to come two to three days after the first high. When that extemely ACT (downtrend) line is briefly violated (the end of the first flush of panic), there tends to be a period in which stocks drift up like the residual smoke of a towering inferno. If MEEPs do exist, they would have to be handled with extreme care, obviously, traded with big-league shortstops both above and below. While whistling "Spinning Wheel" to myself, it's just occurred to me, though I won't have time to look today, that if it is a valid signal for a rise ("what go-oo-es UP" ...), that there is probably a second line above it that would give the Sell signal (... "must co-oo-me DOWN"). Just spinning my wheels, Ivan PS: In the case of APM, a "quasi-MEEP" was generated by the October crash day: The days to use are 10/21 and 10/31, and the buy signal would've been generated on 11/13 (the fact that it was a "thirteenth" makes it a superstitious quasi black-cat day). Best trading would've gotten you in the 16s and probably out somewhere two days later in the 18s. I, of course, would still be holding it.