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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (126222)12/15/2016 12:51:58 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 217542
 
The important thing to keep in mind and many people forget that, is that one need to always remember what propped a country up.

What made Germany and what made Japan post WWII?
In the case of China what made China was external forces: the Exporting model was a external creation that was already working when China opened up to a capitalist style economy.

China mainland looked to that tiny island of Taiwan and thought: What that Taiwanese can do we mainlanders can do too. Lets become an export power house!

What made Japan, Taiwan and the rest of Asia was the exporting model. And I am not not diminishing them. I think it was a great achievement and the people had toiled hard to export their way out of poverty. No one will doubt that.

But now the exporting model is dead. Asia has to find ways to grow internally. The most affected will be China Indonesia, if we stay with Asia only.

You, personally, will do well, China or no China, HK or not HK. That is not in doubt. I write about the macro effects. Not the micro effects.

Now we come to the interesting part . and that is different from everywhere else.


One friend one time, rather unelegantly I would say brutally said: "The Filipinos have and advantage over the Indonesians. They know that they are clueless.


It has a big degree of truth on that if we keep in mind that what makes a country is people. Not money.
If money was what made a country, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia would be world powers and would be today giving us lessons.


I keep saying that there is in every country a tiny certain percentage of people who can function properly in a modern economy is a little fraction of the general population.


That is what China lacks. People who can function in the modern economy. They will keep doing wonders inside China but once they go out, they are out of their depth. The worrying thing is that they do not know that they are out of their depth.


A small country without pretense to be a world power can function without bigger % of people who can function in the modern economy. China got too big but with a tiny % of what is called Intelligentsia.


You have not forgot the theory of natural size which uses the British Empire and is applied to the US end of last century. That we can apply to any country. Which points to Japan return to insignificancy that they came from. They did well, but they will return to their natural size.

And that is what make China just a blip on the screen. They come and they quick go back to their own natural size.