To: Ian deSouza who wrote (27493 ) 1/5/1998 1:08:00 PM From: DiViT Respond to of 50808
Like I've said, this is a buy and hold until the year 2000 stock... Ten Trends for 1998 Howard, Bill 01/06/98 PC Magazine Page 097 (COPYRIGHT 1998 Ziff-Davis Publishing Company) Copyright 1998 Information Access Company. All rights reserved. Faster, cheaper, easier to use. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to predict these trends for virtually all hardware devices in the coming year--just as you don't have to be a genius to predict that most software will take up more disk space and consume more CPU cycles. Here are ten serious trends that I see for the computer industry in 1998. PC 98 revolutionizes PCs for power users. To meet the Microsoft spec, you need better audio and more CPU power. You also need to get rid of the ISA bus, and when that happens, your interrupt (IRQ) hassles go away. Then you'll have a PC that's truly Plug and Play. You'll be limited only by free slots, not by the handful of free interrupts. Wintel antitrust cases go nowhere. Whether the Justice Department is stalking Microsoft (now) or Intel (sooner or later), the people who benefit will be lawyers, not users--and probably not competitors. Microsoft and Intel are big and maybe don't play fair, but big doesn't mean monopoly, and unfair doesn't mean illegal. The $1,000 PC is here for good. Everyone underestimated the appeal of the $1,000 PC except Compaq. The old wisdom was that $1,000 PCs become obsolete too soon, so you should spend more. Now a lot of people fear every PC becomes obsolete quickly, so why spend more? I still think there are serious drawbacks to sub-$1,500 computers, but the buyers have spoken. Build to order: Who's kidding whom? BTO isn't like getting a custom suit. When you're talking about retail sales, it means manufacturers building PC configurations that dealers say they can sell, not necessarily building the specific PC you want to buy. So why do BTO? It helps retail-oriented manufacturers such as Compaq cut inventory overstocks. In combination with the reduced number of models available in stores these days, retail BTO gives individual buyers fewer choices, not more. The digital darkroom is a year away. The pictures you can get with sub-$1,000 electronic cameras and $500 ink jet printers are pretty close to traditional prints at sizes up to 8 by 10 inches. But there are still too many plugs, wires, and cables, and too few standards to entice the casual user. The same holds true for PC-based editing of home (camcorder) movies. Power users will be happy with the technology, but most users will want to check back in 1999. The government handcuffs the PC industry over encryption. Americans aren't the only ones who know how to write encryption software. Even if we were, we can't keep it from being exported: If we can't stop planeloads of cocaine from coming in, we surely can't stop floppy disks from going out. Lastly, a lot of people believe that individuals ought to be able to keep their information private from competitors, from foreign governments, and even from their own governments. Innocent people like to keep secrets, too. Apple packs it in All that Apple has left now is slivers of the home and educational markets and the majority of the DTP/graphic arts/prepress market. When the last of the good graphics/publishing software gets ported to Windows NT 5.0, the Mac could become just another display behind glass in the Boston Computer Museum. Shame. Apple was great competition for Wintel. But make no mistake: Apple's death certificate will read "Cause: self-inflicted wounds." It's not just Intel inside Though the CPU can provide multimedia functions, it's still unclear why a $250 CPU should be bogged down with work that could be handled effortlessly by a $20 DSP. You're better off allocating some of your CPU budget to more RAM and a multimedia coprocessor. The year of... These technologies will make a splash in 1998: Universal Serial Bus and USB devices (finally); sub-$1,000 19-inch monitors; PDAs using Windows CE 2.0; digital loudspeakers; virtual Dolby Pro Logic on high-end game machines (five-speaker sound from two speakers); DVD -ROM; and PC TV (but only if vendors can give you picture quality equal to what you get on a decent TV set).Maybe they'll be here in 1998, but more likely they won't have much market impact until 1999: DVD-RAM ; the IEEE 1394 (FireWire) bus; DriveBay, the universal-size bay for removable drives and other I/O devices; hand-held PCs in cars; 15- to 17-inch desktop LCDs; 15-inch laptop displays; PCs controlling home entertainment systems; and battery power for laptops on airplanes.