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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (18520)

12/15/2016 1:10:42 AM

From: John Pitera

2 Recommendations

Recommended By
3bar
richardred

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

Hi OX, I was thinking about you today and our discussions of Nat Gas's very low levels in Nov 2015 and then in early 2016. where we were both bullish and realizing that we were at historically very low levels and that Nat Gas was completely out of favor........ and as I say below the commercials are still long Natural Gas Futures.... Pretty significant since they are selling forward Crude production like crazy for 2 years.

John

Message 30889337

in looking through the latest COT -- Commitment of Traders data... I noticed that the Commercials are actually long Natural Gas even though it has doubled off those 1.60 a Million BTU rates of 13 months ago and then a few months later.

The Last post which has several posts from 2000 was when we were running the GZ fund and GZ and I had been going long the really big NG contracts that existed back then we got Long in Sept as NG was breeaking out to the $3.40 and $3.55 area in the Oct 2000th futures... which would ideally have been rolled into Dec. which is historically the winter seasonal top is made in mid Dec.

It was the Peter Lynch 10 bagger in futures that year......... that and shorting the NDX futures.
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To: John P who wrote (17470)

12/29/2015 5:10:55 PM

From: John P

2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 18520

Speaking of Natural Gas... there was a very good reason that I was posting here on the evening of Dec 15th..25 year monthly and weekly Natural Gas charts.... The following day was the day to buy UGAZ the 3X NaturalGas Long ETF which has doubled in price since then and Natural Gas futures bottomed 2 days later and have had a robust 35% plus rally. I have wondered from time to time about some of the lurkers who stop by to read the thread occasionally.

Message 30363965

I got a PM from an SI member who I had never met who has last posted on SI back in 2013 been a member for over a decade.... he wished me a merry Christmas and commented about my gold note of a few weeks ago.

Natural Gas 25 year Monthly and Weekly charts..... the RSI indicators are the lowest they have been over the entire time period which illustrates the depth of the bear market and should make long term contrarians excited over the ability to pick up cheap assets during 2016. The monthly RSI down at 23.70 is very impressive from a historical perspective.

Message 30374917

not sure if this post is on this thread as well.

JOhn

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you post from Jan 4th 2016.

To: John P who wrote (17504)	1/4/2016 8:58:35 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) of 18520

We were definitely due for a bounce in NG. Your post was timely, JP! Here's the shorter term leveraged chart (borrowed from wolfgangrene's thread)

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To: The Ox who wrote (17519)	1/4/2016 11:49:55 PM
From: John P	Respond to of 18520

Thanks Ox. The UGAZ daily chart of WG's looks like more upside ..... The below ERX 60 minute energy bull share ETF has a bullish descending wedge that I have not annotated on the chart... The USO and crude are trying to rally.... crude closed above it's 21 DMA last Thursday... and crude may well attempt to work it's way north up to it's 50 Day MA at $40.. that's the bull side The $40 level is historically tremendously important with the 1980 top occurred there after the run up from the 3 to 4 area was where we when OPEC cartelized itself in the early 1970's... as well as the first Gulf War top at $40 in Jan of 1992 it has to compete with the fundamentals Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell 28 cents, or 0.8%, to $36.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell six cents, or 0.2%, to $37.22 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. More than 18 months into the crude-price rout, oil production remains high around the world. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday said that domestic oil production was higher than previously reported in each of the first nine months of 2015. On Monday, data provider Genscape Inc. told clients that crude-oil stockpiles in the key storage hub of Cushing, Okla., rose to a record in the week ended Friday. Ample Cushing supplies in the past year have sparked some concerns that Cushing, which is the delivery point for Nymex futures, could run out of storage space for oil.... Some oil analysts and investors have argued for months that the low price of crude doesn’t adequately account for a possible supply disruption due to violence or unrest. The oil market has been vulnerable to sharp rebounds in recent months as traders who had bet on lower prices quickly reverse course. *Hedge funds and other money managers have held large numbers of bets* in recent weeks that oil prices would fall, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Increased concerns about geopolitical conflicts could have prompted some traders to close out their bearish bets. Feb and March of 2017 and Dec of 2018 were the 3 longer dated months on the NYMEX crude strip that had the largest volume today.... and they were all being sold and down on the day..... The east coast is having it's coldest temperatures of this winter..... as is much of the country that helps Natural Gas in the near term

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To: The Ox who wrote (17519)

1/5/2016 2:54:26 AM

From: John P

1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18520

OX, we've had some pretty good years with natural gas the fund we had back in 2000 put on multiple contracts when it broke out in the late summer...... back in the the 1990's and in the first several years of this century... the seasonal highs in Natural Gas were definitely in December and thus it gave you a time target to get out .... and also a price high in July for the summer AC season.... the NG market has assumed entirely new qualities since we have had the rise of fracing.

John

Message 14957984

To: John P who wrote (2596)	12/6/2000 1:14:49 PM
From: John P	Read Replies (2) of 17523

WOW a single Natural Gas Futures contract has gone up $43,000 since the end of Oct. The Jan 2001 NG contract has traded up to 8.75 today. It's coming close to winning the title of the Market of the Year even my targets have been taken out.... Yes, Natural Gas is going higher. I imagine 5$ is a minimum and under the right constellation of events, I think we could see $7 Natural within 4 to 8 months. Message 14195507 this has been an excellent example of a market that one tries to buy on a reaction (earlier this year) and then just stays long with a trailing stop loss.

It also is important to remember that when a market goes
into new alltime high ground, the further upside can be
so much greater than the conventional wisdom.

we might even see $12 in this type of market, but it's
a very dangerous market to trade now if one is not
a commercial.

a couple of old posts talking about the bullish ascending
triangle back below 4.60 in the summer and the contract
specs.

Message 13935506

Message 13935553

One more post I have dug out from this thread, talks
about the Elliot Third of a third concept that Chip was
asking about today, this may further clarify the earlier
post to Chip.

Re. selling the news on oil normally that is that case.
when everyone is talking about a trend it's time for
it to reverse.

occasionally you can find instances were everyone is talking
about something and to use an elliot wave concept, it's
a third of a third wave advance in a bull mkt
or it would be a decline in a bear mkt.

it's a point where their is mass realization of a trend and
it propels the trend much further even though everyone
"knows" about it. The issue is how many people are
long these energy stocks and have been in the energy
complex bull mkt??

the fundamental situation in NG and heating oil, seems
to indicate higher prices, but I agree that it's

"front page" news so we'll have to watch it closely.

John+

Message 14212272

John

To: The Ox who wrote (18520)

12/20/2016 1:25:04 PM

From: John Pitera

Respond to of 33421

Hi Ox, I would normally be thinking that way too, the public is under represented in this market and as I scan the currency, Interest rate markets, the very bullish action in Japanese equities even the powerful move in the meat complex... we have lots of really trending momentum markets... December is the Santa Clause month...

DJIA 20K today...... the day before the winter solstice....

To: robert b furman who wrote (24978) 12/20/2016 11:31:40 AM
From: John P of 24979

I think we should be selling them.... should develop a catch phrase patent it and sell a whole line of products on the Net.

July 6th the $TNX reaches it's all time low of 1.33% .... July 6th Gold tops out for the year and begins it's decline.. July 8th The Japanese 10 Year Govt bond reaches it's negative yield low down around -28 basis points with a huge % rally and a final retest on July 27th and then the Japanese 10 year rate moves swiftly higher in yield and reaches 0% by Sept 12th

JP

thanks for your always insightful observations.

John

To: The Ox who wrote (18520)

12/20/2016 1:26:00 PM

From: John Pitera

Respond to of 33421

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (90)	12/20/2016 1:19:56 PM
From: John P	of 91

HI Jon, this deal is quite bullish long term for BPL...... ( be sure to read the full news item Jon K. posted.) The unique agreement *spares BP of paying out cash* and gives the capital of the United Arab Emirates' stake in a company that first arrived there in 1939, back when the country was still a British protectorate of sheikhdoms. The deal also makes the UAE one of the biggest single stockholders in BP as oil prices have climbed out of a 13-year low in February. "This agreement will provide BP with long-term access to significant and competitive resources that we already understand very well," BP CEO Bob Dudley said in a statement. News of the deal came without warning Saturday after years of negotiations between London-based BP and Abu Dhabi, the capital of the seven sheikhdoms that form the UAE. BP had held a 9.5-percent interest in the onshore concession that expired in late 2014. That year, the company's overall crude production dropped 2.4 percent, something it blamed in part on losing the Abu Dhabi concession. BP said Saturday's deal includes the UAE's Bab, Bu Hasa, Shah and Asab fields, which will produce between 20 billion to 30 billion barrels of oil equivalent over the 40-year term of the concession. BP will be entitled to 10 percent of its anticipated production of 1.66 million barrels of oil per day under the deal. The 10 year British Petroleum chart has a number of bullish developments as it nudges up to a multiyear horizontal resistance area that it appears to be preparing to break out above. Especially bullish is the Accumulation/Distribution line, The very powerful price momentum on the Oscilators and The RSI MA model is in buy mode and the Money Flow is also in buy mode. Positive fundamental catalysts such as this deal can only help. JP