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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (126245)	12/15/2016 4:13:08 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By marcher Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217541

Let\s go back to another wirtschaftwunder just to give you perspective.Ask a German today and he too would had always thought the wirtschaftwunder was a case of reform, rejuvenation, re-start, learning, studying, saving, investing, To which I would retort" To a certain degree yes, but let's not forget that the US, (again the US) needed a show case of capitalism to show the USSR how nice their system was as compared with the paradise of the workers. I see what you mean, that out of the too many countries that wish to export manufactured goods, the world picked China to do it. Exactly. Where else there was a reserve army in the rural areas ready to move to the urban areas and work hard with a strong hand behind them? No where else. How did they do that, you may be asking? Just see that tiny island there. They are rich because they exported their way out of poverty. Re <<That is what China lacks. People who can function in the modern economy. They will keep doing wonders inside China but once they go out, they are out of their depth. The worrying thing is that they do not know that they are out of their depth.>> ... Yeup, look at all the failed Chinese all around the world. They are the exception, not the rule. Look to the Indians succeeding and then look to India. We cannot gauge China or India by looking into diaspora individuals. And let me add that they are succeeding because they left their country of origin. The exporting model The exporting model has no respect to size. You applied, succeeded. Once the set of circumstances that gave raise to the model is exhausted, it no longer works. The developed world needed a manufacturing platform. It got that in Asia as it migrated manufacturing. Now there is no longer what to send to Asia to make. Primary sector Agriculture. Secondary Sector Industry Tertiary Sector Services Service comprises upwards 60% of any country GDP. The rest is Industry and Agriculture Just industry cannot allow economic growth forever and that is why GDP in China will go to 2 or 3%, which is extremely good as we a re talking about a $13 trillion economy. But note that these 2 or 3% are internal growth not generated by huge exports as the model is dead. it took was studying, learning, adapting, saving, investing, and working. I guess I am wrong. Yes, you are wrong but you have a friend to correct you. First because you believe these are the monopoly of the Chinese. Second, and more important: We need dissent. Guys throwing ideas at each other and one ridiculing the other and out of that mess comes out the light. The light as in the Enlightenment. They are the seeds of adaptation. The intellectual class is necessary because they are the ones who generate ideas. That is the learning part I am alluding to now. Now you cannot persuade Elmat that a small clique comprised by the sons and daughters of the old Red Guard would create these ideas doing backroom deals. The rest of world are doing exactly the same thing. studying, learning, adapting, saving, investing, and working. The adaption understood as adaption as how can we adapt to a world where China is a big and prosperous country? ... Yeup, I suppose the natural size of everything China is naturally small. Small and big are relative. Lets look at the numbers. China reached between 9 and 10% of the world GDP on the back of the exporting model as China's exports grew by 16 percent per year from 1979 to 2009. With exporting model death, that engine of growth is no longer pushing the rocket. Thus, GDP growth will slow down and growth will be organic. No hope of returning to 36% of global GDP then. We would love that as we could be exporting the inputs for that growth and getting rich. But it is not going to happen and Xi China Light is pointing into that direction.