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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (24961)	12/16/2016 11:38:08 AM
From: humble1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41020

bob: great detail on your put selling strategy. very disciplined and helpful. thank you, sir. this is the way rich people think and act! :-)

To: robert b furman who wrote (24961)	12/18/2016 12:51:53 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 41020

H Bob, a really fantastic posts.... you very vividly and with your normal mathematical precision articulate total return opportunities that are accentuated by smart covered call writing. Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT) is an interesting company, The number number 2,3,4 institutional holders are Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, Jennison Associates LLC, and Forward Management LLC. some specialized investment firms. gotta love the #2 Mutual Fund holder: ..... Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund bloomberg.com streetinsider.com did not realize that University of Chicago's Richard Thaler's fund has beat 99% of it's peers in the last 3 and 5 years in small cap mutual funds. Probably worth looking at there holdings and when they announce purchases and sales. What I did not specify well in that last post is that investors who are in companies that are not growing their revenues or earnings and have been marked up in valuation simply because of a relatively attractive dividend are stocks that are likely to under perform as the hunt for yield that grew to a crescendo back in July.... is morphing into a different type of market. *Actual growth in topline and bottomline numbers* in companies is becoming much more important in this shifting rising interest rate environment. In terms of Oil and what OPEC can do.... some of the producers like Nigeria and Venezula are not even members of OPEC.... and OPEC always cheats... But I would simply refer to the CLR... Continental Resources..... look at their portfolio of current operations. The company has large holdings in the Bakken formation tight oil area of North Dakota and Montana, the Niobara formation ( in Nebraka) , the Anadarko Woodford Play of Oklahoma, and the Red River Units Play of North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming. In the fourth quarter of 2015, total production was 225 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (1,380,000 GJ) per day, of which 65% was oil and 35% was natural gas. [1] CLR was the first to develop a field exclusively through precison horizontal drilling. In 1995, Continental discovered what was later described as the Cedar Hills Field in North Dakota – the 7th largest onshore field in the lower 48 United States ranked by liquid proved reserves – and is the first to develop it exclusively through precision horizontal drilling. [5] In 2003, Continental drilled its first wells in the Bakken formation. [6] So the management teams at CLR .... our beloved PXD and about a hundred other companies are sitting around rooting for crude to get to 55...60... 65... so they can ramp up production like hell to meet their fixed costs...... A continent of overhead supply at higher prices.... and OPEC is well aware of it... and there is a Trillion dollars (thank you very much Central Bankers of the world) for completely topping up the liquidity tanks of "grave-dancing" super saavy Distressed asset Capital businessmen........ sitting up on that tree limb with you looking to scoop up the debt and assets of all of these "frackers" I believe Pres elect Trump just put one of the distressed value situation pros in as the secretary of commerce. and so we wind on down the road........ hopefully our shadows not being taller than our souls. John last minute fantasy fb decision.... -g-

To: robert b furman who wrote (24961)	12/19/2016 1:15:16 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41020

HI Bob, I realize you are writing puts that if the stock falls low enough you are buying the stock and getting it at discount to your purchase price... the discount being the value of the premium you are collecting on the naked puts you are writing. And you are happy to own the stock at that given price due to the yield and you are comfortable that the stock is worth owning at that price. The cherry on the sundae is the puts you write that expire worthless generates income and then frees up your capital to re deploy on another round of naked puts. Is that what you are doing? Or writing in the money or at the money naked puts to ensure that you get the stock put to you....... I should come over to see what kind of tools you have in your wizard's workshop... -g- I was obviously multitasking and focusing about 70% of my attention to which of the 3 Quarterbacks I was going to put into today's penultimate round in the fantasy football league I am in with Joe Sekely ( my currency trading compatriot.) And also trying to do a third thing while I was writing to you this morning. Thus, here I am in the first post back to you writing about covered call strategies when I know better about what you are doing. Although it sounds like you did write a covered call on HCP... If it was a naked Call, sounds like that would have not been exercised. The thing about naked put writing is that it is tailor made for a sideways market where you can not make that much money being more heavily outright long... or leveraged long. I would not want to be doing naked put writing with a very large % of my portfolio back in Q3 2007 into March of 2009. and investment strategist just tend to be optimized for the prices action that has occurred more recently...not necessarily what the upcoming price action will be. My impression what is the opportunity cost for the funds you have to keep liquid in your account that is assessed by your broker dealer... and now that I think more about this; since you usually have enough long stock in your account, me thinks you are able to use that as collateral.on your naked puts. They all have large debt in general - which makes them have a knee jerk reaction when bond yields move higher. They then seem to settle down after providing a good opportunity to sell puts on them. and what if the 10 year yield shoots to 3.5% or 4 % quickly. There are actually a lot of companies and industries and countries that have loaded up on cheap debt and global rates are rising. You have given me some interesting things to think about....... and the monday The Malaysian Ringgit has dipped to it's weakest level since the Thai bhat initiated currency crisis of 1998. The Chinese are having real serious problems with capital flight... and their currency is under assault. A gradual tightening of short-term credit by China’s central bank—combined with rumors of liquidity squeezes at brokers—prompted a mini-rout in the country’s $8 trillion-plus bond market last week, forcing authorities to reverse course and inject some $86 billion in short- and medium-term funds. China actually had to stop trading in their bond market last week because the rout got so big..... when was the last time any of you have heard of a bond market getting halted because the price moves were to big and illiquid. I have often said that it all starts with the currencies because that's what everything else is priced in. And Interest rate differentials and big moves in rates... which on a % basis interest rates have been ramping north very seriously during the past 2 -3 months create dislocating that lead to risk off .... Money lost in other markets prompts selling in the markets and assets that can be sold by Y-Sing Liau and Netty Idayu Ismail December 18, 2016, 9:01 PM EST Malaysia’s ringgit touched the lowest level since the Asian financial crisis as investors continue to sell down emerging-market assets and after a crackdown on currency speculators last month exacerbated outflows. The ringgit declined as much as 0.1 percent to 4.4805 per dollar, a level unseen since January 1998, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg, before paring losses to trade little changed at 4.48 at 9:52 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur. The ringgit has lost more than 6 percent since the U.S. election, the biggest decline in emerging Asia, as expectations that incoming American president Donald Trump will stoke inflation with his fiscal policies spurred outflows from the region. Sentiment toward Malaysian assets has also been hurt by the central bank’s move in November to clamp down on trading of non-deliverable forwards even as it provided greater onshore hedging flexibility with revised regulations. “It is a confluence of the relative decline in cash metric, high foreign holding of bonds sold off, investors’ trepidation about FX controls and the underlying political or headline risks,” said Vishnu Varathan, a senior economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. Bob, I think one of my goals for 2017 is to get you and account where we can get you feet wet trading the US yield curve........... Maybe with trade station. You are a quick study and I firmly believe that it's going to be a key market to be following... and also one where mucho dinero will be made on the move up in yield down in bond prices. You are great with numbers and we can easily calculate the risk reward parameters on putting positions on... and then use the insights occurring in the US note and bond market John