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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (18529)

12/18/2016 4:17:01 PM

From: John Pitera

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

To: rogermci® who wrote (24958)	12/18/2016 11:58:53 AM
From: John P	of 24969

Hi Rog, .Thanks....I absolutely agree with you that I don't see crude heading off on a run to $85 or $110 or more anytime in the next 2 years. So no big secular bull. As WTIC goes up the frackers come back and add supply to the market.. And we continue to see improvements in energy efficient cars, appliances.. and just about everything that uses energy. One interesting thing that I have noticed is that even with the rally in price of Natural Gas, the commercials are STILL LONG the forward futures contracts. The big decrease in the amount of fracking in the US has sopped up the glut of Nat Gas and the frackers and other drillers do not have enough rigs utilized to return us to the super abudance of NG we had in 2014-2015. Thanks for mentioning CLR. Here is a 3 year chart of CLR and it definitely is a good proxy for crude movement, of particular interest is the exceptionally whip lash rally and then plunges that has characterized CLR since Sept.The stock and crude have had a somewhat schizophrenic trading action, some people want to be more bullish on crude than may be warranted and OPEC rumors have really pushed the market around over the past several weeks. The market volatility is likely due to a lot of hot money still interested in the energy complex. And we should be reminded that their is hot trading money out there. Another amazing attribute of the CLR chart is the really incredible accumulation that occurred in the stock from the beginning of Dec 2015 through the end of March 2016... *the daily volume was greater each than the 200 Day MA of volume for 4 solid months*. There are very few stocks that have that type of volume behavior.... and the Money Flow indicators were very bullish during that period. CLR operating and profit margins are problematic as they are both negative.... right now the forward PE has been noted to be 158.. I have had some concerns about many of the companies in the energy sector that the Price/Sales, P/E ratio, PEG ratios really need crude and NG at higher levels than I believe we are going to see in 2017. the 24% short interest ratio helps to explain the swift rallies and dizzying sell offs since Sept. Harold Hamm is the CEO.... he's a very good leader. thanks for mentioning CLR. JP