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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (14131)	1/4/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Dave Re:"...In Feb 1996, AMAT made $1.02 EPS.....that then went down to the .44c range During even the worst of times, AMAT, has been able to show profits while many others in the sector were racking up huge losses. That was the point I was trying to make, although apparently unsuccessfully<G>. Now that the worst appears to be over, I highly doubt we'll see a drop off of 50% in forecasted earnings. Or do you suspect we are going to see a double V in the cycle of the equipment capex? Re:and here we are in Jan 1998 with lots of folks predicting a couple of slow quarters coming up If AMAT can meet its guidance of $2.08-$2.15, this will be a RECORD YEAR for eps, even with the slowdown, exactly what I was referring to in my previous post when I mentioned that AMAT weathers downturns better than most others in the industry and is not susceptible to the WIDE variations in earings. Re:Question is....has everyone already discounted the upcoming slowdown?? Down ~50% since August with a flat qtr coming up and possibly two more. Looks like it to me. On track for a RECORD YEAR, even with the SEA debacle and AMAT is trading about where it was in 1995 at a pre-split price of $59 7/8, with 300mm on the horizon(read:next year). KIM that Morgan & Co. discounted SEA in their forecasts IMO. We were on track to earn $2.40-$2.50 this year had earnings kept increasing at the rate of the previous three qtrs. CUL8R Brian