IMO because the breakdown last year
from a well tested easy sloping long in duration trendline should have put the final nail in the
death spiral coffin. Instead we have a return back and a potential recapture, on humongous volume, to the area of the long term breakdown implying whatever happened over the past year plus was most likely a false move coupled with dire negative sentiment "death spiral talk"

To: The Ox who wrote (17536)	1/5/2016 9:19:59 PM
From: John P	5 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 18529
Crude 20 Year Monthly, 10 year weekly and daily...... looks like the bear market is not over yet. But the weekly chart is showing some constructive and indications that a significant bounce is not that far away.... remember that is the weekly timeframe. The 20 year monthly Chart illustrates the Elliott wave Super Cycle Bull Market the began on Dec 21 1998 at $ 10.65 and topped out at $148 on July 2nd of 2008. The chart illustrates the fairly straight forward A-B-C corrective process that has been in place after the 10 year bull market.... at the end of such a huge Bear Market in Crude it is as tricky to catch the bottom as it is to determine exactly where a parabolic, exponentially rising market will top out. John This Monthly chart has the Elliott wave labeling of the Super Cycle and illustrates the Fibonacci price projections for the bottom .

-------------------------- Crude bottomed at 26.05 in early February of 2016 and was with a rounding error of the $24.72 target. Commodities are supposed to bottom first in a disinflationary / deflationary portion (the economic winter) of Economic and market cycles.

So crude which truly is possibly the single most essential global commodity was rebounding as we still were seeing global governement bond yields sink even lower into negative territory... that went on into July when we came to the end of a larger Uranus Saturn square ..36 year cycle of the secular bull market in bonds which was lower and lower interest rates around the world. In fact, British rates were at 500 year lows, US rates had never been as low.. ditto Japan, the Scandinavian countries, Germany, Denmark etc. and now as the price of crude recovers it is playing along with the theme of a Global rise in interest rates. our secular uptrend in rates should play out over a number of years.... if we do witness the ultimate collapse of the Euro Currency in 2018-2019, we should see quite an upswing in inflation (the debasement of currencies) and vastly higher interest rates. Humble1 was asking on the thread this past week where we might be in the long term Long wave economic cycle... It is a bit murky, and our ideas of how all asset class prices are supposed to act in a given Long wave economic cycle is most likely variable. One further thought on the length of cycles, some cycle theorists have stated that market cycles may fluctuate and play out with greater rapidity due to technological / increased information and quicker time processing of information. In 1984, I was reading a newly written book on equivolume charting where the size of the bar varies and is larger say a day of larger than average volume. Towards the end of the book the author was speculating that a bull and bear market cycle in the market might actually be as much of function of volume as of time. He was showing how he saw earlier in the century where a market cycle would be comprised of about 14.3 billion shares trades on the NYSE..... that took a considerably longer time to occur earlier in the century.... he went on to show how the time window for the 14.3 billion shares to trade had been getting much shorter in time. There is nothing magical about that particular amount of shares trading to be the governor of a market cycle imo, but the overall idea that some of are economic cycles have become turbocharged and are accelerating due to the increasing speed in which information is put into the systems and the markets adjust to the changes in supply and demand circumstances. that's just something to ponder........ Great chart and your logic regarding the "false break down" on the long term crude uptrend is exactly that a technical head fake that will be reversed... The interesting question is how robust is this re inflation cycle? if in fact, we have finally broken the secular down trend in interest rate in place since Oct 19th of 1981 in the US... John