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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58753)	12/19/2016 3:53:59 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78748

Ok good to know. Will continue hold Both ARII & TRN too. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58753)	1/6/2017 9:59:08 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78748

Re: The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) Greenbrier misses 1Q profit forecasts The results fell short of Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 84 cents per share. The maker of railroad freight car equipment posted revenue of $552.3 million in the period. Greenbrier expects full-year earnings to be $3.25 to $3.75 per share, with revenue in the range of $2 billion to $2.4 billion. ---------------------------------- They still reaffirmed FY17 EPS guidance. Stock took the news positive +6.8%.. GN value at $48.48/share or only 13.5% undervalued at this point. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58753)	2/17/2017 11:20:54 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78748

RE: Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) - out w/ earnings Trinity beats by $0.07, misses on revenue Trinity (NYSE: TRN): Q4 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.1B (-29.0% Y/Y) misses by $10M. ------------------------------------------ Trinity Industries, Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Results Some highlights: Railcar deliveries of 27,240 with Rail Group backlog of $3.0 billion as of December 31, 2016, compared to railcar deliveries of 34,295 in 2015 and Rail Group backlog of $5.4 billion as of December 31, 2015. Backlog shrinking Wind tower orders of $1.2 billion in 2016 and backlog of $1.1 billion as of December 31, 2016, an increase of 209% year-over-year Very nice increase in backlog orders here. “Our 2016 results were slightly ahead of our expectations and reflect our Company’s ability to successfully transition as market conditions shift,” said Timothy R. Wallace, Trinity’s Chairman, CEO and President. “Our people have continued to execute well in a challenging business environment. We remain focused on controlling costs, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and initiatives to improve our performance.” Mr. Wallace added, “Many of the market challenges we faced in 2016 persist in 2017. The oversupply of railcars and barges in North America continues to impact market fundamentals. The flexible nature of Trinity's business model positions our company to respond when market conditions shift.” ------------------------------------------ Company now only 16% undervalued according to the GN valuation. Early last year the GN valuation model had them 35% undervalued. TRN did book a higher profit in their construction segment and increased their rail cars in their leasing program (from sales of cars last year). Revenues were down in this division since there were no rail cars from their leasing stock that were sold. 2017 guidance is soft, so it appears all the Trump expectations are only that "expectations". Any new legislation would only impact in 2018 or further. Forward PE pretty high at 22 (using highest management estimate of $1.35/share). EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58753)	2/24/2017 2:00:40 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

American Railcar Industries, Inc. (ARII) - out w/ earnings and business prospects The stock is over 8% higher after a decent earnings report giving how bad the railcar sector has performed during 2016. This was somewhat expected w/ TRN's earnings report last week but since ARII is a 'pure' railcar manufacturer and lessor of cars but I was quite impressed how management avoided the bleeding. Q4 saw a significant slowdown in new rail car builds but more of the finished cars went into their leasing division. Backlog is still good but now growing like early last year. Stock is selling at/near it's GN valuation of $49.00/share. I have GTC order to close the position at/near $54.00/share but may re-evaluate that depending on economy and/or new Trump tax proposal(s) both which s/d increase margins and profitability. My original buy was 11/2016 is + 26% but s/d revert to it's 3 year mean price in next 24 months if economy begins to grow at/above 3%. My take away is that management did an excellent job in a very difficult time. If/when demand picks up, their leasing division s/d generate more cash flow and/or those new build could be sold. In either case, these rail cars that were put into their leasing division, increases their BV, so they are set up to significantly benefit by higher cash flow (from leasing) and/or higher rail car sales (selling some of these new rail cars from the leasing division). EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58753)	6/27/2017 3:40:06 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) - sold 30% @ $27.75/share American Railcar Industries, Inc. (ARII) - 2nd Buy targeted at/below $36.50/share My first Buys in TRN was in 5/2016 at prices between $16.90/share-$18.30/share. I sold my high cost shares as the GN valuation model has TRN fairly valued at $26.28/share. My thought was to put the proceeds into ARII w/ another Buy at/below $36.50/share. The GN valuation model shows ARII to be 10% undervalued w/ a fair value of $39.37/share. Unfortunately, ARII has rallied the last two days +5%. ARII also pays a higher dividend just short of 5%. Will wait for my entry point for ARII. I already have one Buy for ARII on 11/2018 at $38.50/share. I still think the TRUMP infrastructure plays has legs but may/could take longer to get started w/ Congress stalled on passing any new legislation. American Railcar Industries (NASDAQ:ARII) (hereafter "ARI") is the third largest manufacturers of railcars in the US. ARI is owned and controlled via a 56% stake by famed activist investor Carl Icahn. Icahn last purchased shares in 2011 at around the $15 dollars a share mark, a very slight premium to a book value. Since Icahn's last purchase of ARI shares the company has had a distinct and dramatic transformation, all against the backdrop of railcar industry resurgence. This meteoric rise has lifted shipments of railcars nearly 400% and ARI's share price as much (412% since January 4th 2010). Position is small for ARII. Also looking at The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)but that is only 3% undervalued according to the GN model. EKS