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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (126799)12/22/2016 1:08:35 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217556
 
Here goes the second installment

All your questions are being answered, only need to synch as you are ahead of me by 7 hours.


ah, i see your implicit world view, and frankly it smells of unbecoming fear. it does not sound like the you i know. the implicit view reminds me of what a clinton-termed 'deplorable' would note. the explicit note is comprised of much untruths, a/k/a fake news.

If Jack would be playing with a loaded 9mm Glock you would be afraid for he would not know what he was doing and the danger he was in.

What the China Nomenklatura is doing, told it would stop doing, and found no alternative and continued in the same path is akin to a child playing with a a loaded gun. And Xi is still trying to cool the hot market China's Xi calls for wide-ranging measures to regulate hot property market.


Let me throw more sun shine on the dialogue. it would be surprising that perception re china does not change. the change is driven by one item in the main, that china the rebel can and is upending what is, given that china has the capability, capacity, inclination and the protocol, and china is constituting a community of shared interest, albeit that shared interest is not to the advantage of all (equally) in the constituent geographies. if the upending was not happening no one would worry, least of all you.

This paragraph is like Jack, as in the analogy above, telling he is bullet proof and he also can dodge bullets because he watched in the Cartoon Network. You, as an adult would be freak out. China has only the inclination and the protocol but it lacks the capability, capacity as I out in one of my first postings that it has a fraction of the population that can work in the modern global economy.

please do look in the mirror or any other reflective surface, reflect, ruminate, collate the facts, and discern the truth.

Now this is my area of expertise, technically and I am an introspective person by own nature.

just for example, two and half decades ago your telecom expertise was crucial and ericsson and such made use of that expertise all over, even as such retained me to crack open then non-existent china market when ericsson's china team numbered paltry 21. later,

That happened because the western companies picked China as its manufacturing base -as explained previously- to produce at lower costs as man power was much less expensive than in Sweden and Ericsson saw the possibility of entering market with great potential and having a base there could sell to Chinese operators.

Then wesrtners were predictably, we faced competition from folks who did a half-a$$ job but for 1/6 our accustomed fee,

When a company, any company, pays someone $$$ is because it extracts value from that what is paying. When someone does that very same job for 1/6 is because the guy doing that job adds 1/6 of the value of the guy doing it for $$$. Think value. Do not think cost.

and so we (hopefully including you) 'strategically repositioned, and tactically re-calibrated' / essentially retreated to further upmarket and / or developed a new practice

I am a survivor par excellence. In 1993 my boss told me, in Munich, “Come with me to Saudi Arabia to coordinate a team of Filipinos. This what you Koreans Filipinos are doing cheaper. I need someone to manage them.” It was my first sting as a manager. I became the boss naturally because the market pick me to do it. The Chinese perhaps need to be called boss to catch girls as perhaps the girls do not like non bosses.

1995 He told come join me in Indonesia, Microwave planning is being taken from Munich and is now doing locally. I need someone to manage the teams. I went.

1997 I moved to Ericsson for fixed access as Asia was booming and people wanted fixed line while helping people on the nascent mobile. Then to Stockholm to do Busines Intelligence. Etc etc etc

Seven years ago I moved to fiber because pays better and has long term contracts and will move to the next whatever the telecom moves to. My Linkedin profile has dozens of articles where I tell where we are going.

Have a look:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/osvaldo-coelho-6b61425?trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile

(in my case, instead of helping companies getting into china via strategic alliances and investment transactions, gradually shifted to almost 100% china-inside-out, and coal trading). just for illustrative example, whatever we were doing back in 1982 - 1999, a good run, is no more a market of desire but an arena of blue collar-dom, whatever we toiled at 1998 - 2010 is an impossibly hard slog whatever we diversified into circa 2003 - 2008 came to a harsh stop whatever we laboured at 2005 - 2011 can no longer be, and whatever we treaded on 2010 - 2016 is only waiting to be globalised, and only a question of whether we are able to monitise before the cruel happening or go down with the boat.

The mistake you are making is to think that after China Stalinist economy there will be doom. No. There is no doom. There will be China Light. Here is what you should do.

An Idea for TJ to profit from CHINA LIGHT.

Now you can tell the Chinese: You do not need coal. You need to employ the masses freed from the Stalinist economy into the service economy.


Get 5 million surplus workers and make them taxi drivers for Uber China. If successful, they can demobilize even more PLA that costs a lot of money to the economy. Now you enter China with the goal to pen language schools for them to learn English, Spanish etc. They are only Mandarim spoken and only the highly educated speak foreign language and this put the man on the street at disadvantage.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (126799)12/22/2016 1:19:36 AM
From: elmatador2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Elroy Jetson
ggersh

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217556
 
One can take the man out of China but cannot take China out of a man. You need to take China out of yourself in an exercise called “The de-Chinalization of TJ”. You will be able to see things under Elmat's prysm

so, yes, the blowback against globalisation happens, and the deplorables enthusiastically sign-on as full members of the counter revolution. the enthusiasm to roll back the clock is especially fervent from those who had a good series of early run at engaging w/ globalization but now cut down by yet one more wave of 'barbarians' entering the gate who are better armed and hungrier than ever, or rebels more suitably prepared and ever more enthusiastic, depending on one's point of view and current stance in the globalisation feeding chain. what i described above is otherwise known as progress, a later wave of the river pushing out the earlier crest, and that which can neither be reversed without unaffordable harsh and unintended consequences, nor stopped, by electioneering or otherwise.

Once it dawns on us that Globalization is posed to cause more danger than foment human progress, the deplorables, and there are 6.1 billion of us non Chinese: The money men. The intellectuals scholars, the average Joes and guys like me see it and react saying: “Holy shit, those guys -the 1.4 billion minority of the world population- are threatening to throw the baby with the bucket of water!”

We will not allow that to happen

this is what makes the next 15 years so very exciting, but not so much for resource exporters and tier 2 / 3 aggregates stuck in the old ways and unable to make the leap,

Let us look back to the past 15 years. Then make a projection of the next 15.

As the Collapse of 2001 happened, in 2002 it was about to start the adventure on the desert, as the US reacted to 911. (And you know it because we were discussin thiese events in SI) US was taking $2billion a day to cover the deficit. AG was talking the economy up and was about to throw money into the economy.

What happened next? The Law of Unintended Consequences struck. The Americans took the money AG was throwing at the economy and started building houses like and the banks were financing, and that sucked China’s products by the container load.

This event ended in the 2008 economic crisis that was supposed to reassert the world economy. The US started doing QE and China saw the possibility of its exporting model taking off real good.

Had Ag not doled out cash -post 2001 Financial Collapse- and the Law of Unintended Consequences reasserting itself, China would not be where it is today.
It is necessary to cut Beijin to size else they think they did all on their own, although they sell this for internal consumption and the masses buy that.

China started its own QE by the billions and kept the economy going. The US cunningly wants to remove the FED from fomenting the US economy and let the politicos take the reins.


Which brings us to the 15 years which is going to be the next posting