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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (126904)	12/23/2016 2:13:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217689

Re <<Is any member of the Xi's government scrutinized for where he comes from, what he did in the past?>> you are either being comical, naive, or just wrong for the sake of wrong. wish you could at least read chinese. the subject is covered by all sorts and from all angles, and in great detail. am not in a position to guide you through the pile. and so simply synthesise and post. enough said, i trust. Re <<To this day, the thread delegate to TJ to be the knowledge carrier of what is China for what is going in there. TJ has not conducted this task well. >> ... okay, and for good reason, due to track record i am guessing. Re <<In the process we discovered: TJ, as a long term resident of HK has limited knowledge of the world over and tend to see China under that limit.>> ... i see, where one lives affects what one sees, in your opinion. i agree with you. however, hk is a great metropolis, a key financial centre, that which straddles east & west, is #1 in economic freedom, and where even 90-years young ladies pay attention to the big screen news monitors while crossing the road in CBD. which place do you think i should pay attention to that is not covered well in HK? Re <<TJ also enjoys the freedoms guaranteed by a British heritage ...>> ... there are a lot of places of all sorts of heritage. how the place turns out seems to have more to do w/ the people than the heritage. tj, per discerning analysis, figured out where to be and when. you reap the benefit even if not knowing what you gathered. Re <<Why TJ does not defend the immediate take over of HK by the Chinese as waiting until 2099 is going to be waste of time?>> ... am unsure what if anything you are going on about, so shall skip. if it was important, alert me and rephrase. call me thick. Re <<He is very critical of the Western society>> ... where did you get that from? i am critical of idiocy, not east vs west. only people of the old school think in such terms. heretofore i thought you had evolved well past that way, but am clearly wrong. very disappointing. Re <<while putting all Chinese political system under a positive view>> ... where did you get that from? Re <<... even going to the extreme to state that it is the system that brought China where it is and not the western importers of the goods it produces.>> ... but for the system and the internal changes to the system that the system is clearly capable of and has the capacity to, walmart cannot change a country. you give too much credit to walmart, and at first i thought you were being funny, but now understand you wanted to be wrong. ... am astounded, what your thought process must be. Re <<The belief that the money spent by the military men is advancing the case of China under the light of what we saw the end of the USSR is preposterous.>> ... where did you get that from? Re <<While propagating ideas that the system is an example he has consistently failed to show that China is aligning itself with the Tier 2 and Tier 3 countries to establish influence outside China. Tell me who you walk with and I tell who you are, that points that China is Tier 2 or Tier 3 country.>> ... and i had understood per 36 stratagems and follow-on thoughts (people's war), to surround the centre by coopting the surrounds. perhaps i am wrong, but i shall remain wrong until proven correct, for the correct read is important to stay with. Re <<I cannot see today any measure China is taking to establish itself as Tier 1 for Tier is a state of mind, not an accumulating of materials or propaganda. >> ... that is why i am trying to help you, as i have since 1999 here on si, and long before that to others and to good effect. It is extremely difficult to sell time at a premium, and i dispense to you my time, a gift. Re <<The negative effects of that aligning with the bottom is that it helped the nefarious regimes by doling out cash for influence>> ... you mean it is better to help the nefarious regimes at the top? see that you are naive. recalibrate premise. take a read of 36-stratgems, and appreciate its history backing. may help. but i cannot read for you. Re <<China has not created many friends as it grew fast. It created client states that as soon as its power vanishes, will be looking to other sugar daddies.>> ... friends? you are of course being either amazingly naive, or just incredibly simple. please know that i am not trying to be impolite, but am simply lacking the bandwidth to relate the fundamentals. separate universes and big continental aggregates of people do not typically collect-think in terms of friends, and cannot. folks who know big generally see big, and others see small unless they are astute to try to discern big. this is why people pay attention to history of big, and should not waste bandwidth w/ small. Re <<Thus Elmat had to step in and correct it to show that China is>> ... do you wish to have the thread back? Re <<Japan was, a blip on the screen that shoot up and will go back to where it came from>> ... yeup, sounds about right, unclear what the comma was for.

To: elmatador who wrote (126904)

12/23/2016 2:19:53 AM

From: John Pitera

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ggersh
GPS Info

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217689

To: ggersh who wrote (18537)	12/21/2016 5:21:06 PM
From: John P	Read Replies (2) of 18544

*China Credit update: ggersh, Yes rising relative US yields... the 10 year US note/ 10 year bund yield is 260 basis points, the greatest since 1989. Which was when the Berlin wall came down and Germany let go of a degree of ultra conservative fiscal monetary policies to absorb the weak east Germany. And a USD in an uptrend lends itself to capital inflows into US debt and equity markets . The dark negative side of these phenomenons occurs when the global shift in relative yields and currencies is to abrupt and leads to cracks showing up in foreign currencies that are pegged to the USD... and also unpegged currencies. ANOTHER powerful adverse impact of too swift a move up in either or of the USD and US short and long rates is that it is the reference point for a large percentage of global loans, forward contracts on the full monty of business transactions, with so many of them being denominated in USD terms and numerous commodities being denominated in USD terms Others that are pegged to the YUAN are impacted by bigger moves moves in their currency and money markets. China continues to experience adverse issues with there massive exponetial expansion of debt over the past 15 years.. China1. Rate increases are putting pressure on the nation’s property markets. Here is the Shanghai Exchange Property Index. 2. Note that higher rates – driven in part by the Fed – also caused the Hong Kong real estate market bubble to begin deflating.* There are a number of global housing markets that have been deflating during the second half of 2016, from London, New York, Paris, Miami, Houston, Rio, Hawaii top end properties selling for 50% of their 2013 sales price. 3. Speaking of bubbles, China’s wealth management products universe is not in a good place these days. The corporate bond selloff is forcing some deleveraging, and it’s not clear how far it will spread. Here is the AA+ corporate yield. The high grade bonds yield spread continues to increase as investors scramble to get out of lower credit quality paper. This is causing some desperation among bond market participants to obtain financing, resulting in scandals such as this one. Source: @FT; Read full article And there is a lot of corporate debt out there. In the meantime government debt is also selling off, especially on the short end, *causing the yield curve to begin inverting.* Inverted Yield Curve are one of the most very best predictors of economic downturns / recessions. Banks and Financial institutions are really whacked as the cost of funding goes negative and burns up some of your balance sheet. (btw. The HIBOR... borrowing rate is also inverted currently....that's not good either.) and this is not being brought on by the PBoC market operations. More a function of the exhaustion of the Multiyear Debt expansion and the government propping up state owned companies that are running negative margins and negative earnings yields. The Chinese government yield curve has in the space of ONE WEEK gone from being quite steep from 3 months out to 7 years and almost magically inverted from 3 month to 6 years..... I don't believe there is a previous example of a government yield curve of a Global top 7 economy in GDP terms ever doing that this quickly. I have never seen a yield curve move like that in 1 week in my entire life.....Luckily it's China, with their Giant BlackBox system of an economy. of course, the Chinese have for years and years been "different".... just like Japan was in the 1980's... the dot.com mania of 1997 to March of 2000... The Housing and CDS / CDO bubble of 2007, the Asian Tiger economies of the early 1990's were the South Korean equities melt down bu 80% from 1991 to 1994. 4. Recently the offshore renminbi has been stronger than the onshore currency at times. Given the downward pressure on the currency, the more “free floating” offshore yuan should be cheaper. This anomaly has to do with the tight funding market for renminbi in Hong Kong. Source: @wsj; Read full article 5. Bitcoin is approaching $800, in part driven by the demand from China’s residents. 6. Separately, Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive has been relentless, often bringing down low-level officials, some of whom were innocent. JP