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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (127249)	12/28/2016 3:41:21 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217572

The conclusion is, you know about China in the same way I know about the United States. In reality you know about Hong Kong and other places you visit, just as I know about Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area and other places I visit. VP Joe Biden says he suspected Trump would win after he went to his home state of Pennsylvania and talked to voters. When was the last time I was in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, North Carolina or Ohio? That would be never, never, never, never, never and never. You have similar information deficits about China. We both read about the parts of our nations we don't visit, but that's not the same as knowing. But I suspect we've both been to places like Monaco, Paris, Luzern, London and Sydney. Do I trust economic information about China more from the US government and the IMF ? Yes, absolutely. I know the methodology used and US and IMF statistics on the US are endlessly dissected to easily documented variances. China doesn't have the same transparency. If I were starting a business, I'd want to start it in the US, Australia or Germany because I understand and trust the process in those places. I know for a fact how crooked and closed the Mexican economy is and doing business there requires a big, politically connected partner - and many US firms have discovered this through pain. You've said China is pretty much the same - you need a big politically connected partner, and many US firms have discovered this through pain. You claim you need this big, politically connected partner because there is very limited corruption in China. I say if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a corrupt duck.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (127249)	12/28/2016 3:45:30 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217572

THE METHODOLOGY Look to the past. Look to the present. Analyse what happened in between and extrapolate to the future. I looked to how long it took for Brazil to catch up with the US. Then looked into how long it took for China to catch up with Brazil. All in terms of GDP per head. That was the data. Here comes the massage of the data. What China achieved in the past 30 years was the down hill phase. Everything was going (all wind in the sails) for China. Now comes the part China has got no experience with: The plateau phase that stretches from 2014 to about end of 2020's. I am saying that China will be Japanized in the next 15 years. NOW FOR THE CURVE THING You seem to think that there will be a time warp that China is the mass that curves the spacetime and that will allow China to arrive ahead of the rest of the world in the coming decades. If that time warp existed and a country could "tunnel" through it to achieve what the rich world achieved, other countries have already done that, don't they? I do not think in terms of curves. I think in terms of hurdles that countries have to jump to get to the other side. It is impossible to get out of the middle income trap. Countries would need to be another animal to be able to get out of it. That means jettisoning a lot of the old baggage -which are the hurdles countries need to jump over- they carry to achieved high development. Flush down the toilet history. Fuck culture for it is useless. Throw overboard religion. Destroy the old elite. Countries cannot do that. Muslim religion. China history. Brazil culture. It is dawning on me that you are not a man who read books but Elmat is worth half a library NOW FOR THE SQUIGGLE Countries tried in the past to be too clever to their own good and made squiggle curves to dodge the hurdles put in front of them. Rob beg or steal Beg thy neighbor Outright conquer It never worked