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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (18568)	1/1/2017 1:37:04 AM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Recommended By Hawkmoon Respond to of 33421

*A Most Happy and Joyous Year to all of us ..........* *John*

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (18568)

1/3/2017 6:34:33 AM

From: John Pitera

Respond to of 33421

the first half to 2/3 of the 7th year of the decenial pattern is very bullish...

I am feeling very bullish on US equities..... more bullish than the weekend prior to the election.

The guys at UBS and a couple of other places had a 13.9 year cycle that they were talking about back in 2013.. that cycle was set to bottom in Oct of 2016, as cycle theorists know, that when a market is very strong the downward phase of the cycle on keeps the market going sideways. You can tell the cycle has ended when prices have an explosive upmove after the cyclical downward forces dissipate.

I will absolutely not be bullish all year on stocks.... but the next 3 weeks and 6 weeks feel like animal spirits.
go SPX 2478... that is probably a May 2017 number.

JP

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (18568)	1/3/2017 8:47:54 AM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Recommended By Hawkmoon roguedolphin Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

The United States higher rates being to pressure US home sales.1. Let’s begin the year with the latest pending home sales figures, which came in below expectations. Are higher rates starting to pressure the housing market? 2. New home construction in the US continues to *lag the demographic demand for housing.* Source: Goldman Sachs, @joshdigga 3. According to the Conference Board, US consumer confidence is now at the *highest level since 2001 (right before 9/11).* Will this trend translate into spending? 4. The economy of Texas is finally showing signs of growth. If oil prices remain at *current levels or rise, we should see further improvement.* The charts below show service sector and manufacturing activity indicators from the Dallas Fed. 5. Speaking of manufacturing, the various regional surveys (such as the one from Texas) suggest that today’s national manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) should be solid. Nordea predicts a reading above 55 – the highest since 2014. Will the recent dollar strength derail this recovery? Source: @MikaelSarwe, @josephncohen 6. The latest wholesalers inventory levels unexpectedly jumped, suggesting that the two-year inventory thinning may be coming to an end. Some analysts have revised up their Q4 GDP forecasts in response to this figure. 7. Nonetheless, the NY Fed’s NowCast model sees US GDP growing only 1.8% (annualized) in the 4th quarter. Source: NY Fed 8. As discussed yesterday, projections for US growth in 2017 are centered around 2.2 – 2.3%, with “fat tails” on both sides. Only one economist is forecasting a GDP decline. Source: @fastFT; Read full article 9. One of the key trends economists will be monitoring this year is capital investment. The chart below shows investment diverging from employment. Companies would rather hire more cheap employees than make significant investments, resulting in weak productivity growth. Source: @NickatFP, @DeanDijour 10. One way to spur investment is by s *changing the corporate tax structure. Here is a comparison of the tax proposalfrom the House Republicans and Donald Trump’s team.* Source: Goldman Sachs, @joshdigga Back to Index China1. Beijing has changed the composition of the benchmark currency basket, *reducing exposure to the dollar. China wants to decouple from the Fed’s tightening cycle to make sure the yuan does not rise too much against the currencies of competitor nations.* SO the weighting of the big 3 USD, EUR, JPY are all down as is AUD and HKD smart move by the chinese to help stem the Trump arguement that the Chinese are manipulating there currency on the US and G7... no trump tweet on that this morning. Source: Goldman Sachs, @joshdigga 2. The above could mean further renminbi weakness against the dollar, which will put pressure on foreign reserves. Here is the offshore renminbi vs. the dollar hitting multi-year lows. 3. Short-term rates in China remain elevated and highly volatile – below is the 7-day repo rate. Economists believe Beijing is attempting to reduce speculative activity and leverage. 4. The renminbi funding market in Hong Kong has tightened further. This policy is meant to make it harder to short China’s currency. (with the Chinese Hibor Curve inverted it makes it much more expensive to short the Yuan as you are paying large funding points each day even when nothing happens. 5. China’s manufacturing output increased much faster than economists had been projecting. Note the comment on input prices. Source: Markit, Caixin Back to Index Asia1. Elsewhere in Asia, Singapore’s GDP growth shocked to the upside, with a 9% quarter-over-quarter growth, apparently due to improvements in manufacturing. 2. South Korea’s consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in years in response to the President Park Geun-hye scandal. 3. Tokyo’s CPI, which comes out a month ahead the nation-wide numbers points to returning deflation in Japan. Most economists view this as temporary. Currency traders have shifted into a net short yen exposure in response to the recent dollar rally. Back to Index Emerging Markets1. Security concerns in Turkey are taking a toll on the nation’s currency which hit another record low. The 10yr bond yield remains above 11%. Turkey’s manufacturing sector is in contraction mode as input price pressures intensify. Source: Markit 2. Russia’s CPI is declining faster than expected. The central bank needs to resume its easing cycle as real rates hit new highs.

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (18568)	1/6/2017 6:31:47 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

*Hi CHIP,* *Thank you so Kindly and a Fabulous, Joyous and Uplifting NEW YEAR to us all.* *Thank you for all your friendship and counseling over these many years,* *John*

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (18568)	1/13/2017 2:13:53 AM
From: John Pitera	4 Recommendations Recommended By Anchan Hawkmoon marcos roguedolphin Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 33421

Gold and Silver Update... GOLD is just below a cluster of 2 key Fibonacci retracement levels... look at how Gold is just under and getting resistance from the entire price actions from the 1971 low and the 1923.70 top in sept of 2011. that is hard core... Now looking at the 14 month daily chart see how we are just underneath the 50% Retracement level from the Dec 2015 low at 1045.40 and the high of 1377.50 on July 6th of 2016. talk about a cluster. On the 10 year weekly chart of Gold we have the RSI Moving average system in a solid sell and there was not a bullish momentum divergence when we made the last low at 1124.36 ... Looking at the one year Silver chart the Momentum since July has been on the sell offs especially since Oct. Silver is trading lower than the high it reached in early Dec... and so it's not showing aggressive upward leadership. It's just meandering upward.... so on balance all of this is tell me that Gold and silver should still have some time to spend in corrective non inspired directional mode. And looking at the 30 year Silver Monthly chart it was solidly beat down at the .382 retracement level I need to post my update on the USD as the Wyckoff work from the past 2 plus years is still firmly in control, and the USD looks to have a solid bid for it as it back towards the 100 level. John