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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58870)	1/6/2017 8:23:35 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78732

What's you value proposition for selling these stocks? I still have an overweight position and still think they have a ways to go based on the food deflation cycle/reversion to the mean basis. EPS are still quite low and s/d now begin to rise. In fact, I think we are in just the beginning of a multi quarter acceleration in earnings. From my last Buy in UAN, shares are +43% from their lows last year but I still think there is another double in prices in the next 18 months. I suppose on trailing earnings this and many of the other fertilizer stocks may/could be at/near fair value. FWIW, I also see CORN breaking out of multi year lows and that commodity has a ways to go higher (based on reversion to mean). This to me would be the catalyst for fertilizer prices to rise. The capital required to duplicate/build the manufacturing facilities is the same or more than what was required 5 years ago and the market had priced those assets significantly more then than now. The input feed-stock is higher so the cost to manufacturer the end product will be marginally higher than 8 months ago but we have yet to see higher end prices especially the per unit prices we had 36-48 months ago. I plan to hold my undervalued position until I see those end unit prices move higher. Like many of the undervalued 'value' investments, the sell proposition is many times harder to determine than the buy/entry point. The gains recently are pretty big but I still think we have a ways to go. The corollary argument is that it is never wrong to book a profit. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58870)	1/6/2017 8:53:15 AM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 78732

Mining/fertilizer stocks: Fwiw, closed fertilizer stock Agrium (AGU), reduced Yara (YARIY) and CF Industries (CF). Intending to make additional sales. Why? UAN no good?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58870)	7/23/2017 3:18:40 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78732

Norway Takes Lead in Race to Build Autonomous Cargo ShipsThe Yara Birkeland, slated for launch late in 2018, will make short trips delivering fertilizer Dubbed by shipping executives the “Tesla of the Seas,” the Yara Birkeland now under development is scheduled in late 2018 to start sailing fertilizer 37 miles down a fiord from a production facility to the port of Larvik. Using the Global Positioning System, radar, cameras and sensors, the electric ship is designed to navigate itself around other boat traffic and to dock on its own. The Birkeland is being jointly developed by agriculture firm Yara International ASA and Kongsberg Gruppen AS A, which builds guidance systems for civilian and military uses. Petter Ostbo, Yara’s head of production who leads the project, said the company would look to invest in bigger ships and use them for longer routes once international regulations are in place for crewless vessels. “Maybe even move our fertilizer from Holland all the way to Brazil,” he said. The world's first autonomous, zero emission container ship (long) May be another reason to accumulate the stock if/when it sells off. YARA also do self driving tractors in Europe. It's still a small % of their revenues but has hidden growth potential. EKS