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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (5623)1/5/1998 1:01:00 AM
From: Mama Bear  Respond to of 27307
 
Hey, you don't need to convince me. I think we're headed into a major bear market. but that's still months away, I've only been musing about the next few weeks. There is a lot of fresh 401k money that belongs to people that think the market only goes up, and any dip is a "buying opportunity". This was only reinforced by the dip to 7000 in late October, with the correspondant rebound.

You might also want to start thinking about how much the Y2K mess is really going to cost to fix, and how much productivity will be lost, both through the direct costs associated with the problem, and through less profits per man hour when some computers quit working and purchase orders, repair ordes, etc have to be entered the old fashioned way. Then there will be litigation costs, as you know the tort attorney's will be all over the situation like ticks on a dog. Since everyone will want to place the blame (and the cost) on someone else, the court battles over responsibility should still be affecting earnings through at least 2005. It really is too bad that Zitel et al didn't really have a magic bullet. Y2k is here sooner than you think as well. Some FY2000's start in early 1999.

Haven't some prognosticated massive catastrophe's in 1999? I'm beginning to think they may be right, at least with concern to the finacial markets. My 401k is moving in the direction of cash and bonds. Of course it will go to cash soon for the rollover, but I've been slowly selling my lt holdings because I think the stuff's going to hit the fan soon.

Barb!



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (5623)1/5/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: fut_trade  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
<<Morgan Stanley's guy in Hong Kong thinks it's getting far worse.>>

Maybe not, if the Fed lowers interest rates.

Peter