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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (18604)	1/19/2017 8:50:05 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Most informative review John. Thanks for sharing. Higher Dollar will stall WTI. Bob

To: John Pitera who wrote (18604)	1/19/2017 9:46:28 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Your view was on target but the timing needed to be extended to Feb 16 (which is easy to do in hindsight): The Financial Markets are setting us up for a significantly profound period of major instability between now and Sept 28th. 2015. Like your view on Oil falling below $30, which was true but I know that at the time of $40 oil, few of us were contemplating $26/bbl. A break of $30 even seemed far fetched to most, even though the charts suggested it was a real possibility. The negativity was so bad that CWEI, which was taken out this week at $145ish a share, could have been purchased below $10/share for nearly a month. A note about the first chart, the break of the trend is clear but the first move up is not always the main move. I doubt we'll see any retrace to the bottom of the chart unless a really major unexpected event is on the intermediate horizon. I think it's important to look at the USD in conjunction with the Treasury Yield "for more color". Here's a chart you posted recently: It appears that the economies of the world are starting to improve at a measurable rate. If this backdrop continues, then more rate hikes are going to be on their way.

To: John Pitera who wrote (18604)

1/20/2017 3:52:28 PM

From: John Pitera

2 Recommendations

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Hawkmoon
sixty2nds

Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 33421

USD update: In terms of the USD 2 tops were at 100.71 and 100.60.... so we will close a little north of support , and watch to see what happens when Australia opens on Sunday and see how trading goes in Asia and Europe.

Palladium which is a very thin market had a ridiculous up 5% day and platinum is up 2.53%..... but that is very thin and so neither means much.

Silver and gold futures look like they are going to end up 55% or so.

The big story is EUR/USD since it's something like a 34% weighting of the USD index.... The EUR is coming into resistance as it approaches 1.08

Look at this 3 year chart of EUR/USD and tell me how it makes you feel? comments welcome on this chart.... the EUR might make it up to that descending downtrendline and 200 dma at 1.10..... maybe.... overall the EUR chart appears vulnerable... the comments in red on the chart were written a couple of weeks ago. On a short term trading basis I am totally square the currencies at the moment.

I closed out a long GBP position and my stops got me out of the yen and AUD..

To: John Pitera who wrote (18604)

1/24/2017 7:42:34 AM

From: John Pitera

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

HI Bob.....

one day we may turn you into a little bit of a currency trader -vbg-

what I love about the currencies .... several of the grain markets. and the energy complex, WTIC, RBOB gasoline, Natural Gas and heating oil... is that the markets can tend to trend so well compared to the Stockmarket....

The US note and bond markets are preparing to get into some very large directional trend trading. and Gold silver and copper are markets that do not have the 9 levels of operators in them... such as the dark pool operators and other big institutional players in the equity markets...........

but the US market futures ....when they do decide to trend can be very exciting.

with the Stockmarket the institutions are always scaling into the market on the way down and scaling out during price advances due to the massive size of their books. Thus it creates a market that can be choppy so much of the time.

John

To: cycleupcycledown who wrote (89251)	1/24/2017 7:30:51 AM
From: John P	of 89257

The Global currency markets trade 5.1 Trillion dollars of FX everyday...that was t interbank market is 20 times the size of the currency futures markets.he Bloomberg estimate from this past month........ the nice aspect of the cme currency futures is that they are heavily and actively arbitraged by various bank trading desks so the prices do not deviate from the interbank market much. The volume of the big currencies trading companies like FXCM... help to make the market even deeper.... there are dozens of those. the amount continually goes up over time......... the. So one needs to be fairly cautious in trying to read how the currency markets are positioned with the COT reports. The volume in the USD index on a given day is about 1/10 of the 7 or 8 or 8 major currencies compare the volume on the CME cmegroup.com they have a pull down menu where you can see the EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, CAD, NZD, even the mexican peso is doing a lot of volume on the cme futures with the trump election. the ICE futures where the USD is traded is not that active futures.tradingcharts.com John