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Biotech / Medical : Biosource International -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steven Dopp who wrote (385)	1/5/1998 6:45:00 PM
From: Joe Dancy	Respond to of 696

Thanks for your note on the BIOI analysis Steve - a 27% annual return would be very nice indeed. If you assume a 27% eps growth rate and a stable PE (which is low now) you get to the same place, which is what we have done. With the revenue growth and the industry growth we may be able to better that. It is hard for some to believe that there are opportunities like BIOI out there in the market - but if you know where and how to look you can turn them up, but it takes time and work that most will not put in. I am truly convinced the opportunities for individuals to uncover these types of stocks exists for the first time ever with the advent of the internet and on-line data bases, and it will make some individual investors extremely wealthy if they follow a disciplined investment philosophy. My theory is that if you try to limit downside risk by strict valuation and financial ratio screening, look for explosive growth potential, then put 10-15 of these "gems" in a portfolio to diversify the inherent risk in these small companies and evolving industries, then you very well may get returns better than anyone could imgine. I just wish I could find a few more BIOI's out there - I have a few but not enough. Thanks again for sharing your club's analysis, it tracks ours closely. Best - Joe

To: Steven Dopp who wrote (385)	1/5/1998 10:00:00 PM
From: Bill Hyres	Respond to of 696

Steven, Nice to see a fellow NAIC follower.Thanks for the review. Our club SSG came out somewhat similar to yours. To me this gives a confirmation of our clubs analysis. I plugged in a 25% Sales growth and EPS growth. Considering this is a small cap I used a more severe low price of 3 just to give us a worse case scenario. I used a 1.07 eps for 5 years out. Our buy range came in from 3 to 11-1/2. We bought a little before you in October at 6-5/8. The fortunate thing for most NAIC clubs is the training we do on longterm thinking. We want to double our money every 3-5 years or at least 20% per year. Patience will pay off. Remember that the focus has been removed from the Europeon weakness vs the dollar due to the Asian Flu. BIOI had to back up a little because the currency exchange detered some projected earnings thus the share value was hurt. Before BIOI took over the Europeon business they were losing money! BIOI made them profitable in one year. If these guys keep up the good work our time will come. Patience. Bill