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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58974)	1/26/2017 10:38:34 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78751

I add to these positions on their drops today: More MCK, ADS, TRW. Fwiw, I exit these positions (yesterday): QCOM (loss; 2+year holding) Tutor Perini (TPC) (construction company) (stock seems to have got ahead of itself on possible future contracts), Western Union (WU) (possible signifcant inroads by several internet competitors), National Oilwell Varco (NOV) scared out, taking small loss.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58974)	1/26/2017 10:44:26 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78751

I am still tracking a few Grahmn Buys but all in out of favor sectors. Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) and Domtar Corporation (UFS)are on my list. UFS GN fair value @ $54.68/share (still 27.75% undervalued). I bought a small position at $37.00/share 9/2016 but s/d have been larger as their restructure plan really looks good. It's a company specific plan that phases out bulk paper production into high valued medical paper products (think adult diapers). Still watching DDS as their GN value is $80.57/share (41.73% undervalued) but their turnaround program much more difficult and sector related. Value is in their real estate. No position in this one as I prefer the company specific issues/restructures over sector moves. The railcar and specialty steel makers still undervalued but have had a good run w/ the Trump effect. Not selling and not buying. ATI was one I missed on the recent run but have owned this years ago. These companies seem to always be impacted by cyclical downturns and many (not all) come out stronger on the recovery. Always scanning for new GN value opportunities but favor the company specific value Buys and those are not as plentiful as they were in 2014/2015 period. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58974)	1/27/2017 1:44:28 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

That wouldn't make sense though. Graham advocated buying bonds of large investment-grade credits for income, but right now there is very little income to be had. Meanwhile the principal risk at these yields is huge, and even if you thought yields were headed lower that would still be a principal-related rather than income-related observation.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (58974)	1/27/2017 3:31:28 PM
From: Wizhi	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Respond to of 78751

Hi, Paul. Thanks for your reply, as I really like to hear all the different reflections. I wouldn't describe my self as strict anymore, rather should I say, as Peter Cundill says: illuminated. “I think that intelligent forecasting (company revenues, earnings, etc.) should not seek to predict what will in fact happen in the future. Its purpose ought to be to illuminate the road, to point out obstacles and potential pitfalls and so assist management to tailor events and to bend them in a desired direction. I want to build a library of potential pitfalls/ideas that can help me avoid severe declining earnings, asset values, debt that can't be repaid or renewed etc which will make it difficult for the company I own to perform well in most market conditions. you would be looking to sell into this market, or already have sold. You are right! I have been selling and will continue to do. I could never dream that the 2015/2016 could give this quite good returns and of course it hurts to see the holdings go up while you know you could have done better if you didn't had 60%> in cash position and increasing every month. But I'm happy I don't have large negative returns on most holdings. But I'm most happy I didn't pull out everything in 2014/2015. I like to buy and sell overtime, even more now when I have learned my lesson, that the market can fool you to a larger extent in which direction it can go. As Spekulatius suggests, you would looking to wait, not looking to buy now. Sorry, I don't agree. I'm always looking to buy (doesn't mean I should or will buy). Irving Kahn said "There's always something to do." and i deeply agree. But it's take a lot of devotion and patience to stay in course. This forum is a wonderful place to get valuable input, to stay in that course of intelligent thinking, --------- For the last years I have screened every week (Friday evening) the following parameters: P/B < 1 and Div. yield > 1%. I got the idea from Peter Cundill, where he screened stock. Not to know where the market was heading, but more to get a "feeling" how much opportunity one could find at the current time. Screener source: Finviz - stock screener Is again very few companies that will show up on the screener and IMO, many are in bad shape with not to good earnings/deteriorated balance sheets. The drop in early 2016 was IMO difficult to buy as many of the stocks where fallen from near all time highs or 52 weeks high. Best regards to all replies!! // Wiz