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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Lisman who wrote (159)	1/5/1998 2:40:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Respond to of 18691

CNC RELATED POST.... I thought I would let everyone know some interesting info. I learned over my break to N.C. Kinda personal but what the heck......if we can make some money it works for me..... My father was doing his estate planning in Nov. and he learned that he needed to purchase a great deal of life insurance to cover the death taxes if such an event were to occur.....In doing this he keeps uncle sam from getting the 40% in taxes that follow once someone dies..... Anyways here's the point....My father has diabetes so some companies wouldn't even touch him....In their portfolio of insurees he was deemed to make their portfolio too risky.....However, 10 or so insurance companies bit on the opportunity to cover him.(His company sent out bids to 15-20 companies)....I asked him what his premium would be up front and what the payment structure looked like...I also asked him what the insurance amount would pay if such a terrible event occurred that he passed on.... TO MY ASTONISHMENT, the rate of return was something like 13-15% that HE WAS GUARANTEED using average life expectancy of 73 for a male...... So what is the point? Right? The point is that these insurance companies are bidding for people using the assumption that they can earn greater than 13-15% per year!!!! Where in the hell will they do this? I don't know but I read a book over the break called F.I.A.S.C.O. The book was written by a former Morgan Stanley derivatives guy and talks about all of the various things that happened to him over his 4 years at MS.....One thing he stated was how they could incorporate premiums and interest payments from various deals in numerous countries....they could bundle them in such a way that insurance companies, mutual funds, etc. could buy these instruments to make foreign currency wagers.....REALLY SCARY STUFF FOLKS........I have no doubt that this occurs after observing what the insurance companies are going to offer my father... IS CNC a good short? I am starting to think YES!!! in a big way...... The bigger question is when do they blow up? It is one thing to run a business like crap but if you can cover the analysts/markets eyes to the real problem it can go on for some time..... Comments appreciated.... Dan Ross

To: Dan Lisman who wrote (159)	1/5/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: TATRADER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Hi Dan, I like your pick of CNC...You have a double top formation with neckline at 42.50....Once broken you have a bump at 41.50, and then a steady drop to target of 37.50....Always get out a little early when I give targets because the pros use the same weapons that I do...If I was you, I would secure the hatches, fasten your seatbelt, and wait for the eventual takeout of the neckline....Looks like with the January effect going on, you may have to muddle around a bit more.... My ESV and SNUS did well today just as anticipated....Have two more good picks I will list tomorrow after entry...Take care...Mark