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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mo Chips who wrote (43956)	1/5/1998 3:50:00 PM
From: carl a. mehr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Moo Chips, That was better. I think it is important that we look at the world in realistic terms. I am sending you a tscn url so you can look at charts. I think that the past is a good guide to the future. tscn.com IBM and Digital doubled in 25 years while Intel and Applied Materials gained about 28,000%. Work the chart for different companies that you like. The 5 year chart probably tells it best. Intel and AMAT has done about a gain of 900% ( I haven't looked at it lately, but that is close enough). With Intel trouncing the competition like they are, why would you not expect their performance to double the percentage gains in the next 5 years. The internet is still in its infancy, and only 1.5% of the worlds population have computers. THE MARKET IS HUGE! I don't remember where those figures came from so please don't ask me. It could be that those figures refers to people using the internet. Most of the computers in US are older and slower than the 133mhz Pentiums and needs to be replaced if you want to do audio and video. ----------------- So how did humble carl do last year? I know that many of you are afraid to ask as you are very polite and don't want to embarrass me. Things went like this: I am sure that I won the prize for the biggest paper loss and also the greatest margin call of anybody on the Intel SI thread. I was up to about a gain of 139% for the year when October hit. Intel comprised 95% of my holdings, so I didn't take too bad a hit. Being highly levered I saw my portfolio sink to 1/3 of its size from high point to the low point. Didn't feel too good, but paper profits don't hurt too much. Due to brokers insistance I had to diversify, so I now have a position in AMAT worth about 1/2 of what my Intel holdings are. At the close of 1/2/98 I assessed my gains for the last 12 months. The portfolio gain was a -5%. Not really too bad when you consider that it gained 151% for 1996. I am still in the chips so I can continue to play monopoly! So what are my predictions for the new year? I expect that Intel will reach 140 and AMAT 60 before 1999 comes along. That will give me a portfolio gain of 235%. This gain will be accomplished without additional borrowing, as that is what got me in trouble last year. (Taking SMA and borrowing 58 cents to my 42 cents was not a smart move). If my target of 235% gain is reached, you are all invited to dinner here in San Diego. We will celebrate New Years Day 1999 at Home Town Buffet and I will pick up the tab. Got to get them airline miles on my credit card! So you see, I am the same old humble carl