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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David R. Evans who wrote (7577)	1/5/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: Michael Quarne	Respond to of 12039

HI Dave, Thanks for your always clear and informative posts! I would ask if when you cite an example that you use data back to 1992 in your examples. With the data I have I can only go that far. Thanks Arctic Mike

To: David R. Evans who wrote (7577)	1/5/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: Richard Estes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12039

A few comments on reports, I know you are aware, Dave, but for others: You didn't beat Buy and hold (G)! Why because buy and hold bought on first day of data. Dahl couldn't even talk to you until 51 days later. if you had used >0 as your formula, it may have given you a first buy right at top of a previous real buy of cross(fml(dahl),0)), an important point always use it in metastock, WoW users get into the ref function. You could have had a buy on dahl, 6 months before data started. The drawdowns are high but the 8-12% stop might prevent that being a factor. I still feel it is best to leave stops off, so systems are shown in a pure form. It is too bad that buy and hold doesn't kick in until the first buy of a system. Someone that uses a 200 MA leaves a year of market on the table before the indicator shows up. Tie this with people loading a year or two data,you don't know what it is saying. Those with Metastock should look at MAE in trades: The Maximum Adverse Excursion is the worst intraday price move against a position, measured from the entry price. This risk measurement was developed by John Sweeney of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine. I have talked about this in an E-mail. Chande in the new technical trader talks to it also.

To: David R. Evans who wrote (7577)	1/5/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: Richard Estes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12039

Warner lambert since 1992: Dahl with cross function gave 54.86 points and one less trade or 103% on your money. using a >0, gave a 93% return. Two years of data since 1996 shows 94% for >0 and 99% for cross function on 1/2 the trades. Two things we see using cross makes a difference, and the bull market finally got WLA to start big move in 1996. If you used a VARible MA, on 1992 data, >0 goes to 116% and cross to 145%. If you go to Times Series, you will get you many trades, over 3 times as many as simple and you still get 109% return and you still stay out for over 27% of time. Point: experiment