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Politics : The Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dracin72 who wrote (9422)	2/3/2017 2:21:02 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 364831

The theory says that temperatures will increase as the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increases. IIRC, Arrhenius, in 1896, originally predicted an increase of 1.5-4.5 deg. C for doubling of CO2 (280 ppm pre-industrial to 560 ppm). That's called the sensitivity, and is still undetermined. The IPCC still has just about the same range as Arrhenius did, but that will change next time. Last Feb, temps hit about 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial, and CO2 is only up about 40%, around 405 ppm If you plot global temperature for the last thousand years, it has the shape of a hockey stick, the blade being the last few centuries or so. Michael Mann et al did the first study, in '98. There have been multiple studies replicating their findings. My favorite confirming study is Berkeley Earth, not because it is my school, but because the Koch Bros paid a bunch of sceptics to prove Mann wrong and they got destroyed... and it's my school.. But, I digress... Global land temperatures have increased by 1.5 degrees C over the past 250 years Berkeley Earth has just released analysis of land-surface temperature records going back 250 years, about 100 years further than previous studies. The analysis shows that the rise in average world land temperature globe is approximately 1.5 degrees C in the past 250 years, and about 0.9 degrees in the past 50 years. . berkeleyearth.org