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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Tara who wrote (43982)	1/5/1998 11:02:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Respond to of 186894

Resistance and 75. What I meant Jon was that the stock punctured 75 today and then fell back. It made three additional strong moves up but couldn't cross the 75 mark again. Now tomorrow I would expect the marketmakers to open the stock up higher, as they usually do. That could open it above 75. The question is will it hold? Do you have any feeling for whether we can see 76-78 before this fades?

To: Jon Tara who wrote (43982)	1/6/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 186894

Some current TA observations on INTC: Stochastic oscillator is not yet overbought. One very positive indicator on the stochastic is that it appears to be breaking out of a downtrend. Except for a peak in November, you can draw a nice downward trendline across the stochastic peaks from late July on, and the lastest move has broken that line. RSI shows a similar pattern to the stochastic oscillator. We are approaching the 50ma around 75, the 200ma is a bit over 80. There is pattern resistance around 75 which should become support if INTC goes through it. There is a potential gap area between 75 and 85 - that is INTC could move rapidly through that area. However, there is pattern resistance around 80. The MACD indicator crossed-over positively around 12/26. MACD positive crossovers have historically been a highly reliable indicator predictor of significant INTC rallies. This rally shows rising NVI with rising price, generally indicative of "professional accumulation". However, this is not demonstrated over a long period of time at this point. The last time that NVI showed a sustained rise with price was in August, 1996 through February, 1997, as INTC doubled from 40 to 80 (split-adjusted). Metastock's "Binary Wave" indicator (a "digital" combination of several popular indicators) is reading a perfect 1.0 - that is, all indicators covered by the Binary Wave indicator are indicating "buy". The Japanese "three-line-break" chart (a favorite of mine) is showing two positive bars, reversing a negative trend. The reversal bar was on 1/2. A previous attempt at reversal occured around 10/28, but lasted for only one bar. Otherwise, the three-line-break downtrend had been intact since Setember. The previous TLB uptrend lasted from early July through mid-August, as INTC moved from 70 to 100. Given all of this, along with current fundamentals, my "gut feel" is for a minimum move to 85. However, throwing in some (gut feel) statistical probability, 80 would be a prudent exit point for short-term traders who are adverse to risk. If you are a long-term INTC investor, of course, you don't need all this gobbldy-gook, and can go back to sleep, secure with the knowledge that you probably will not be mowing lawns in your retirement. :)