To: Snowshoe who wrote (129912 ) 2/6/2017 8:48:53 PM From: bart13 Read Replies (1) | Respond to An incomplete list of Krugman's many failures, including predictions "The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law" – which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants – becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine." "Productivity will drop sharply this year. Nineteen ninety-seven, which was a very good year for worker productivity, has led many pundits to conclude that the great technology-led boom has begun. They are wrong. Last year will prove to have been a blip, just like 1992. " "Inflation will be back. Wages are rising at almost 5 percent annually, and the underlying growth of productivity is probably only 1.5 percent or less. Sooner or later, companies will have to start raising prices. In 1999 inflation will probably be more than 3 percent; with only moderate bad luck--say, a drop in the dollar--it could easily top 4 percent. Sell bonds!" "Within two or three years, the current mood of American triumphalism--our belief that we have pulled economically and technologically ahead of the rest of the world--will evaporate. All it will take is a few technological setbacks or a mild recession here while Europe or Japan recovers a bit. " He didn't see the financial crisis coming, a massive failure of his ideology and failure. Source "If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never." "As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly."Source, late 1990s "Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." Source "He has also pontificated that an alien invasion would save the global economy" 5 Big Things Paul Krugman Says He Got Wrong Over The Years “I, you know, I may have overestimated the competence of the Greek government.”Source" "The Fed needs to print more money" "If we are disappointed in U.S. economic performance, we should do everything we can to help the economy, and eliminating the budget deficit is one of the most obvious and straightforward tools available. If we don't do that, we have little excuse for complaining about slow growth."Source from 1996" "Gold was the reason Adolf Hitler rose to power in Germany" Source "It’s true that few anticipated the severity of the 2008 crisis — but that wasn’t a deep failure of theory, it was a failure of observation. We actually had a pretty good understanding of bank runs; we just failed to notice that traditional banks were a much smaller share of the system than before, and that unregulated, unguaranteed shadow banks had become so important." -- Paul Krugman, A Heart Breaking Work of Staggering Folly April 2013 (in plain English, he wasn't wrong, he apparently just wasn't looking) "Krugman's admitted mistakes" Source "With war looming, it's time to be prepared. So last week I switched to a fixed-rate mortgage. It means higher monthly payments, but I'm terrified about what will happen to interest rates once financial markets wake up to the implications of skyrocketing budget deficits."Source "There are influential people out there who would like you to believe that Detroit’s demise is fundamentally a tale of fiscal irresponsibility and/or greedy public employees. It isn’t. For the most part, it’s just one of those things that happens now and then in an ever-changing economy." Krugman: Bush's Deficit Bad, Obama's Deficit Good " OK, this is really shocking: a Heritage Foundation economist has been accused of presenting false, deliberately misleading data and analysis to the Senate Budget Committee.Source (Except Furth from Heritage was using data from 2007-2012 and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island was quoting from OECD datas that covered 2009-2016, which included politically based future projections. Krugman blew it on fact checking.) "Our case has always been that fiscal stimulus is justified only when you’re up against the zero lower bound on interest rate." Source Charting Fun with Krugman
