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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Stempson who wrote (42453)	1/5/1998 6:13:00 PM
From: Gary Wisdom	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 58324

Just for kicks, here's my analysis of 4th quarter earnings I've been working the revenue figures from Iomega's last 3 quarters. Here's what I found: Based on shipping reports, I've extrapolated the following: Zip disc sales 1st quarter 1.2MM 2nd quarter 1.5 MM 3rd quarter 1.8 MM 4th quarter 3.0 MM Revenues in the first 3 quarters for Zip and Jaz only: (as reported by IOM) 1st: $323MM 2nd: $371MM ($48MM more than Q1 on 300K more drives BUT remember the cost of the Jaz recall) 3rd: $406MM ($35MM more than Q1 on 300K more drives BUT remember the plants were shut down for 25% of the quarter) Ok, now, remember that Q2 was the one affected by the Jaz disc recall, so I'll use 1st and 3rd. Total Zip sales in these 2 quarters was 3.0 MM, EXACTLY WHAT THEY'RE SELLING IN Q4. So, as long as Jaz sales stayed the same (almost certainly they went up some), tie ratios stayed constant, and prices to OEMs and VARs stayed the same (I know they went down some but remember they went off MAP in Q4, so cost reductions would offset these), then Q4 revenue should approximate the sum of Q1 and Q3. This would give us Q4 revenue for just Zip and Jaz of $729MM. Add $21MM for Ditto and Zip Plus (that is very conservative), and you have $750MM for Q4. At gross margin of 33% (Q3 margin), that gives us $250 MM in gross margin. Using Q3's 7% net after tax, we're looking at $53 MM in after tax income for the quarter or 38 cents per share, WELL ABOVE ESTIMATES. Taking out $29MM in Q4 for Jaz sales, we have $700MM for Zip discs and drives. Divided by 3MM drives, that's $233 per sale or a tie ratio of over 10 per drive!!! I just can't see how these numbers don't work. It is simple addition. Any comments? BTW, I think that if Iomega does these numbers, we should never listen to the analysts that cover them anymore as they could have done the same math in order to come out with these same figures.

To: Dale Stempson who wrote (42453)	1/5/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58324

Dale - Thanks for that link to the Macweek article about VST. Here are my favorite excerpts (emphasis mine): "Apple-supplied PowerBook accessories are pretty much limited to extra batteries, cases and stand-alone chargers. Fortunately, companies such as VST have jumped in to fill the accessory void. Today you can buy clever and rugged removable hard drives, modular power supplies and Iomega Zip drives that live in the 190/5300/3400/G3 expansion bay from VST. Of all these add-ons, the VST Iomega Zip drive stands out as a particularly impressive piece of both hardware and software engineering." ... And unlike some of the vendor-supplied accessories in the world of Wintel notebooks, VST's add-ons are as solid (or more so) than the machines they service. I've yet to see a VST power supply, battery, smart charger or expansion-bay drive fail or even "act funny." In fact, I was disappointed to learn that VST has pulled the 230MB MO drives from its price list because of dissatisfaction with performance and reliability. I've been running mine for a couple of years continuously without a hitch, as have many of my colleagues. Still, it shows me that VST is not interested in just squeezing a couple of easy extra bucks out of the market with a product that does not meet its standards." This would appear to be a vote for Zip reliability. Before you even start, Rocky, yes I know about the "clicking" problem that some Zips have exhibited. I also know that troublesome Zip drives make up a very small percentage of those sold. - Allen