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Politics : The Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (10744)	2/14/2017 2:03:18 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 356388

"The models are just wrong. And they've been wrong since forever. " [Last updated: 23rd January 2017] This page is an ongoing effort to compare observations of global temperature with CMIP5 simulations assessed by the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. The first two figures below are updated versions of Figure 11.25a,b from IPCC AR5 which were originally produced in mid-2013.... The second panel shows the AR5 assessment for global temperatures in the 2016-2035 period. The HadCRUT4.5 observations are shown in black with their 5-95% uncertainty. Several other observational datasets are shown in blue. The light grey shading shows the CMIP5 5-95% range for historical (pre-2005) & all future forcing pathways (RCPs, post-2005); the grey lines show the min-max range. The dark grey shading shows the projections using a 2006-2012 reference period. The red hatching shows the IPCC AR5 indicative likely (>66%) range for the 2016-2035 period. The observations for 2016 fall near, or just above, the top of the ‘likely’ range depending on the dataset, and were warmed slightly by the El Nino event in the Pacific. 2015 & 2016 were both more than 1°C above a 1850-1900 (pseudo-pre-industrial) baseline. Updated version of IPCC AR5 Figure 11.25b with the HadCRUT4.5 global temperature time-series and uncertainty (black). The CMIP5 model projections are shown relative to 1986-2005 (light grey) and 2006-2012 (dark grey). The red hatching is the IPCC AR5 indicative likely range for global temperatures in the 2016-2035 period, with the black bar being the assessed 2016-2035 average. The blue lines represent other observational datasets (Cowtan & Way, NASA GISTEMP, NOAA GlobalTemp, BEST). The green axis shows temperatures relative to 1850-1900 (a pseudo-pre-industrial period). climate-lab-book.ac.uk