To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1000499 ) 2/16/2017 6:30:56 PM From: Wharf Rat Respond to "This renowned Princeton Physicist, William Happer, needs to talk to wharf rat and Land Carp."Not even giving physicists a bad name! February 16, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics xkcd interview with William Happer, who may become Trumps’s next science advisor and who is also covered in this Guardian article , I immediately thought of it. However, I don’t think it’s quite right. The cartoon is – I think – meant to illustrate that physicists come sometimes be rather arrogant. They can think that physics is very difficult, that everything else is quite simple by comparison, and that they could step into other fields and easily solve what’s been puzzling others for ages. Happer doesn’t come across as a physicist who is just a bit arrogant; he comes across as someone who has completely forgotten how to do science altogether. A great deal of what he says is simply untrue, and demonstrably so.we’re way below anything [NASA scientist Jim] Hansen predicted at that time .1988 paper . The prediction was that we’d warm by something between 0.4 and 1oC between the late 1980s and now. We’ve warmed by about 0.5oC. You can even plot the temperature datasets over Hansen’s predictions (H/T Nick Stokes) and it’s clear that we’re not way below anything predicted . This Hargreaves & Annan (2014) paper actually says his forecast showed significant skill . Furthermore, he considered a number of different possible future emission pathways; we’ve followed – as far as I’m aware – one closer to the middle of what he considered, so it’s not surprising that his high emission scenario forecasts more warming than has been observed. Also, his model has an ECS that is towards the high end of the range that is considered likely. Overall, his forecast is quite remarkable.the equilibrium sensitivity, is probably around 1 degree centigrade , it’s not 3 1/2 or whatever the agreed-on number was. It may even be less. And the Earth has done the experiment with more CO2 many, many times in the past. In fact, most of the time it’s been much more CO2 than now. You know, the geological record’s completely clear on that.here . We’ve already warmed by about 1oC, are only about 60% of the way towards doubling atmospheric CO2 (in terms of the change in forcing) and are still not in equilibrium. It’s utterly ridiculous to suggest that the ECS might be below 1oC. How anyone can suggest this is bizarre, let alone someone who is meant to be a highly regarded physicist.I see the CO2 as good , you know. Let me be clear. I don’t think it’s a problem at all , I think it’s a good thing. It’s just incredible when people keep talking about carbon pollution when you and I are sitting here breathing out, you know, 40,000 parts per million of CO2 with every exhalation.know that it is good? This is almost entirely about risk. The more fossil fuels we burn, and the faster we do so, the more we will change the climate and the faster it will change. Can we adapt to these changes, both in terms of the magnitude and the speed? The answer may not be definitive, but there is pretty convincing evidence to suggest that continuing to emit increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere may produce changes that will be very difficult to deal with. This doesn’t definitively mean that we shouldn’t do so, but suggesting that it is not going to be a problem at all , is nonsensical. There are scenarios under which parts of the planet essentially become uninhabitable .andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com
