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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (130532)	2/16/2017 11:30:30 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217557

let me Google Spotty, to know what it means

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (130532)	2/16/2017 11:32:26 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217557

It’s the ‘Indian IT will be fine’ hope that kills you YESTERDAY By: David Keohane An occasional series about the distant possibility that Donald Trump does not in fact herald the apocalypse From Ambit’s Sagar Rastogi and team: It is difficult to forecast the exact legislation, but the intent of the US government appears to be preventing visa abuse not killing Indian IT. So in our base case scenario, we assume that over FY19 and FY 20 the cost per onsite worker for an Indian IT company will rise to a minimum of US$100,000 p.a. from ~US$50,000 now. We are different from consensus in that we estimate the cost of all onsite workers to increase instead of only the H-1B visa-holders. We estimate that this would no impact revenue growth of Indian IT but hurt margins by 350-730bps over FY18-20. Poor Indian IT. Not only do they have to deal with the harsh reality that their labour-intensive business model is coming unstuck, they now have to deal with a more immediate threat: a wage floor hike to the the skilled visa programme they rather rely on. Here’s the FT: Of course, if it’s just the visa thing, it’s going to be painful but manageable. And as Ambit say it’s probably just the visa thing. Right? RIGHT? Ambit basically think that Trump doesn’t want to break the business model of Indian IT companies. The optimistic reasoning is that any campaign to kill Indian IT would hurt the competitiveness of American firms. (For what it’s worth, folks in Silicon Valley are equally convinced that Trump doesn’t want to break their high-skilled labour business model either.) Which is fair enough — if you increase the price or limit the supply of one source of workers, it makes sense that the price of the remaining workers goes up. In this case, the price of those who are free to work in the US would be higher. … the Trump administration is business friendly and would not want to prohibitively increase the cost of IT services suddenly for all US businesses. Hence, we expect it to provide a glide-path of increase — perhaps US$80,000 p.a. in the first year followed by US$100,000 p.a. in the second year. But maybe we should dwell, for at least a minute, on the idea that the Trump administration might actually want to kill Indian IT. We suppose it makes sense to assume he doesn’t actually want to do that but as James Crabtree recently wrote in an FP article about Steven Bannon’s war on India’s high tech economy: … Arvind Subramanian, the government’s chief economic advisor, noted last week, the bigger worry is that these restrictions could herald a wider crackdown on outsourcing of all kinds, from back-office support to research and development and financial services. “We [India] are much more vulnerable to restrictions on services,” he said. “So one has to worry quite a bit that any reversal of globalization in this atmosphere could also mean restrictions on exports of services. And that’s bad news.” So while, yes, it would be basically ok to tighten up the H1-B system it would obviously be rather less ok if Trump really does want to kill the outsourcing model. It’s not like reshoring services — or protecting American jobs from their offshore competitors — wouldn’t make for a good soundbite campaign? And there is certainly a revanchist theme emanating from around the new administration. That said, we’re with Ambit’s logic for the most part and would extend it a touch by saying that tightening up the visa programme might simply push along the shift in the Indian IT service model that is already underway, from low-cost massed-labour towards more digital innovation with a lower body-count. It’s also true that US companies can offshore their IT services with little fanfare, reducing the political risk. It’s not like moving manufacturing to Mexico and it’s not like US companies haven’t been offshoring their IT needs in a hostile political environment for a while now. We’re just giving our more … cynical? wary? … thoughts added weight these days.

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (130532)	2/16/2017 11:40:24 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217557

The piece in question was to explain to TJ that I talk with the people to know what I know. As he refers to his taking the pulse of the market by talking with people in the region he lives works and operates. Apparently you have not followed our 'conversation' here. I have managed Chinese companies as suppliers of the operators I worked for and I worked for the Chinese for about one year. My knowledge of Chinese operating abroad has very few to match. But of course you might have a better view and I humbly ask you to pleas enlight the thread for wring a single word as a reply is disrespectful to say the minimum. Now show us what you've got.