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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (646)	1/5/1998 10:44:00 PM
From: DMaA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Michael, great article. The one thing your research didn't reveal is the thing that has been bothering us: It is still unclear what ADR holders get in the privatization. Speculation ranges from stock in the concession of their choice to stock in each or several of the Telebras concessions. For its part, the government promises that holders of ADRs will receive their fair share. Somehow a government official saying "Trust us, we'll take care of you" gives me the willeys. Great stock for speculative portion of the portfolio though.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (646)	1/6/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

I read your write-up. Thanks for the PR but you do seem to be the kiss of death <g>. WHy is Brazil down 3.5% today? I would appreciate you posting here all that lot to the story you couldn't include for MSN. I am particularly intersted if you attempted any valuation comparions based on number of lines and cellular customers. I believe cellular customers increased from 2.5million to 3.5 million in 1997. While none of us know what the future will bring. It would seem that conservatively cellular growth in Brazil will be at least 40% annually over the next 5 years. In addition with privatization the company should have better access to the capital markets which should enhance both growth and efficiancy. My hunch is that the company is worth its cellular fanchise alone, and you probably get the line telephone company for free. But I would be curious about your thoughts. With the regard to the impact on privatization re ADR shares I have no concern. To me there are two possibilities: either they just split them up amonst the companies or the shareholders get to request that their shares be exchanged for specific companies. Personaaly I plan to hold these shares for a long time well after the privatization. BTW the bank whose trading was suspended resumed trading yesterday up over 30%.